Economics and Mathematical Methods

Journal “Economics and Mathematical Methods” is an open ground for international communication and information exchange, for sharing the results of fundamental and applied research among the specialists of academic, analytical and expert communities. The Journal is aimed at the highest level in scientific discussion of the problems, methods of research and economic development, inviting the most expertized participants — researches and practitioners. Utmost goal of the Publishers is to provide conditions for free discussion and sharing ideas to advance creative propositions and results of theoretic researches into the real economy. Major mission of the Journal is to provide opportunity to publicize the results of scientific works as well as share the knowledge and experience for scientific researchers. The Editorial board of the Journal aims to make it the leading journal among the serious scientific and education publications, well known in the world economic community, informing about the last advances in economic sciences. The articles accepted for further publication are validated as actual by the reviewers — their problems and solutions, their novelty and relevance of results; these requisites being the necessary terms for publications.

Media registration certificate: № 0110156 от 04.02.1993

Current Issue

Open Access Open Access  Restricted Access Access granted  Restricted Access Subscription Access

Vol 61, No 3 (2025)

Full Issue

Open Access Open Access
Restricted Access Access granted
Restricted Access Subscription Access

Theoretical and methodological problems

The Social Optimum and the Ordinalist Theory of Utility
Nekipelov A.D.
Abstract
The need to fix a specific form of individual utility functions in the social welfare functional proposed by A. Bergson raises the question of the presence of metrics, the uniform application of any of which to all members of the society under consideration makes possible to solve this problem on an objective basis. The method of “composite good” is considered, which involves linking the numbering of hypersurfaces of indifference with the “scalar value” of the bundle of goods with an invariable structure belonging to each of them. It is shown that its use in the maximization of the “bergsonian” under given resource constraints makes it possible to determine the social optimum with an accuracy of the selected composition of the respective bundle and the indicators of its “marginal numbering” for each member of society. The limitations of this method make it necessary to appeal to the very nature of the ordinalist paradigm. Arguments are given in favor of the “logical castling” of the concepts of “utility” and “preference” and the transition on this basis to an “updated cardinalist approach”, within the framework of which the concept of “utility” would be applied not to individual goods, but to their bundles. In the final part of the article, it is shown that the Bergsonian format is not necessary, as its author believed, for the social optimum to be characterized by Pareto efficiency. The same result can be achieved by using the function of social utility, the arguments of which are the quantities of goods at the disposal of each member of society, provided the constraints of the corresponding model include the demand for the equality of the marginal rates of substitution of goods for each other for all members of society.
Economics and Mathematical Methods. 2025;61(3):5-16
pages 5-16 views
Analysis of the theory of capital
Wu J., Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Wu Z.
Abstract

The search for a standard measure of value remains a significant theoretical challenge. Classical economists such as Smith, Ricardo, and Marx believed in a uniform measure of value. However, neoclassical economists argued that the social value of wealth cannot be measured in an objective and uniform way. In recent years, a new theory of value emerged. This theory, building on the foundations of classical economics and drawing inspiration from Newtonian mechanics, constructed an axiomatic system of value mechanics. It also deduced a system of value dimensions that can be applied in the field of economics. This new approach preliminarily solved the problem of calculating value using a uniform measure. Accordingly, we can now use the Euler–Lagrange equation to explore the process of optimal capital motion. This equation allows us to analyze theoretical problems of capital, including the value calculation of absolute surplus value, relative surplus value, and irrational economic behavior. This paper aims to establish a system for the measure of value, with two-fold character — natural and social, similar to the measurement system in natural sciences, offering standardized material properties for measurement units corresponding to value dimensions.

Economics and Mathematical Methods. 2025;61(3):17-27
pages 17-27 views

World economy

Assessment of financial contagion of the stock markets of Russia, USA, China and European countries in 2019–2024, using the copula method
Malkina M.Y., Osey V.V., Gavrilova E.D., Flores Tuco K.S., Lukashina M.A.
Abstract
The article examines the transmission of financial contagion between global stock indices, such as the S&P 500 (USA), STOXX 600 (European countries), Shanghai Composite (China) and RTS (Russia), during the pandemic and new anti-Russian sanctions. ARMA–TGARCH models were used to cleanse the indices’ returns from their own trends and volatility. Shock periods were identified based on the 90th percentile of conditional return volatility. The construction of Gaussian and Student copulas for shock and relatively calm periods made it possible to estimate the change in dependencies between index returns taking into account their marginal distributions. The study confirmed financial contagion between all indices (except for the S&P 500 — STOXX 600 pair) during the acute phase of the pandemic, as well as contagion between the European countries index, on the one hand, and the American and Chinese indices, on the other hand, during the period of new sanctions. Calculating the dependencies for the upper and lower tails of the distribution revealed a greater joint reaction of markets to negative shocks than to positive shocks, and demonstrated the dominance of the wealth channel in contagion compared to the portfolio rebalancing channel. The study develops new progressive methods for analyzing the consequences of global risks for the functioning of national financial systems and assessing the effects of financial contagion. It can be useful for investors to manage portfolios and hedge risks, and for governments to pursue effective financial stabilization policies during periods of global shocks.
Economics and Mathematical Methods. 2025;61(3):28-42
pages 28-42 views

Problems of national economy

Consideration of the impact of risk situations on the beneficiaries of investment projects
Aleksanov D.S., Gracheva M.V., Chekmareva N.V.
Abstract
The article discusses a number of key issues of risk accounting in the development of investment projects. The need for this analysis is caused by errors encountered in the development of business plans for investment projects and distortions of the provisions of modern investment design techniques. Thus, one of the main principles of the assessment is to take into account the presence of different project participants, since the implementation of any investment project affects not only the interests of the direct participants, but also the interests of society, the national economy and the economies of the regions in which the relevant changes are planned, as well as budgets of different levels. However, business plan developers focus on performance indicators from the perspective of a single “design firm”. At the same time, assessments of the activities of subjects in the “project” situation, reflected in the business plans of the projects, are interpreted as assessments of the investment projects themselves, changing the prevailing trends. The article shows that the initiator of the project, in order to make informed decisions, is important not only the performance indicators of the activities “with the project”, but also the effectiveness of the project itself, as well as evaluating the effectiveness of participation in its implementation from the perspective of the main partners and higher-level structures. Attention is also paid to the problems of underestimation in business plans of the financial feasibility of the project and the definition of sustainability boundaries. The distortions of interpretations of a number of key provisions in the development of business plans noted in the article are illustrated by specific numerical examples of the correct use of approaches described in the methodological literature.
Economics and Mathematical Methods. 2025;61(3):43-55
pages 43-55 views

Industrial problems

Assessment of the effects of foreign trade policy on the sunflower seed market in Russia
Boldiasov A.I.
Abstract
The paper examines the impact of an increase in the export customs duty rate on the functioning of the Russian sunflower seed market. Based on theoretical considerations, a logical scheme of the impact of export duties on market processes is proposed. The revealed interrelations between the main indicators characterizing the state and development of the market became the foundation for the construction of economic and mathematical model of the sunflower market in the Russian Federation. The proposed model is a system of power-law equations describing the dynamics of domestic prices, the volume of demand from domestic processors, the amount of exports, and the amount of gross receipts of the crop in question. The calibration of the model parameters is based on the estimation of linear-logarithmic regression coefficients obtained after linearization of the equations included in the model. Based on the proposed model, a scenario calculation of the main indicators of the sunflower market in 2021–2023 was made for the case of maintaining the export customs duty rate on this crop at 6.5%. With the current trends in the development of the sunflower market and unchanged parameters of foreign trade regulation, average annual prices could be higher by 3.1–4.8 thousand rubles per ton, acreage — by 300–350 thousand hectares, gross yields — by 5–6 million centners, exports — by 1.5–1.8 million tons. Domestic demand under the influence of duties would increase by 664.6–1047.8 thousand tons that is insignificant in the scale of processors’ purchases. The export restriction policy had a negative impact on the income of sunflower producers. The revenue of the agricultural sector decreased by 6–7% from sales in the domestic market and 8–10 times from export sales compared to hypothetical values. The increase in the export duty rate, contrary to expectations, did not lead to an increase in budget revenues from the duties paid.
Economics and Mathematical Methods. 2025;61(3):56-68
pages 56-68 views
Pharmaceutical exports and exchange rate dynamics: An empirical approach to the relationship
Khomidov S.O.
Abstract

One of the main factors affecting the export of pharmaceutical products is the exchange rate and its changes. Most studies confirm that there is a significant correlation between export volume and exchange rate. Changes in the exchange rate have a direct and indirect impact on country’s exports. This effect is manifested through the state of the balance of payments, the formation of supply and demand in the money market at the macro level, inflation, the state budget and other similar macroeconomic processes and indicators. Therefore, this article uses the case of Uzbekistan to carry econometric analysis of the relationship between the export of pharmaceutical products and exchange rate dynamics. First, the dynamics of the two variables were tested for nonstationarity using the Augmented Dickey–Fuller test, or ADF-test. Based on the results obtained, the hypothesis about the existence of cointegration in time series was tested using the Engel–Granger method. In the study, the direction of correlation was determined using the Granger causality test. All analyzes were performed using EViews software. The results confirmed the presence of a positive relationship between the export of pharmaceutical products and the dynamics of the exchange rate.

Economics and Mathematical Methods. 2025;61(3):69-77
pages 69-77 views

Ecological problems

Assessment of the carbon footprint of sectors of the Russian economy and measures for industrial decarbonization
Yakovleva E.Y., Baraboshkina A.V., Kudryavtseva O.V., Kurdin A.A.
Abstract
Climate change poses significant threats to the Russian economy. In this context, it is essential to develop a comprehensive set of measures for mitigating and adapting to climate challenges. The European Union’s Carbon Border Mechanism (CBAM) which is set to take effect in 2026, as well as the potential implementation of similar mechanisms by other countries, pose challenges for carbon-intensive industries. The development of a national system for assessing the carbon footprint, including both direct and indirect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and mechanisms for minimizing these emissions at both sectoral and corporate levels is of critical importance for Russia. This study evaluates the total gross GHG emissions and total GHG emissions per unit of production in eight sectors of the Russian economy using an input–output balance model. Furthermore, it analyzes decarbonization tools employed by major Russian industrial companies, which are leading producers and exporters of carbon-intensive products. Recommendations are provided to improve the mechanisms for low-carbon development of the Russian industries. It is revealed that the energy and mining sectors, as well as manufacturing industries (particularly metallurgy, chemical industry and mineral materials manufacturing) are characterized by high total gross GHG emissions and high total emissions per unit of production. A practical conclusion is the importance of aligning carbon regulation with “smart” “green” industrial policy measures. Such policies should account for cross-sectoral effects and strategically influence production and supply chains to maximize efficiency in reducing emissions with minimal costs. Additionally, these measures should contribute to achieving broader positive socio-economic outcomes.
Economics and Mathematical Methods. 2025;61(3):78-91
pages 78-91 views
Mathematical Modeling Features of the Sustainable Development Mechanisms
Cherkashin A.K.
Abstract
The problem of ensuring the sustainable development of nature and society was long discussed and solved by various scientific means, including mathematical models of economic growth. Due to the paradoxical nature of the properties and trends of sustainable development, solving this problem requires a peculiar approach based on the use of fundamental ideas of mathematical analysis. This is meaningfully expressed in the laws of independent existence and changes in the components of an open-closed ecosystem “nature — economy — population” in a geographical environment. The state of the environment is assessed by the additive value of national wealth, collectively represented by natural, produced and human capital with independent development trends (equations) combined into one equation, taking into account the country structure of national wealth. This equation is a solution of a linear differential equation reflecting the balance of forces of various natures in terms of the inter-theory of the mechanisms of sustainable development behavior of the ecosystem in terms of a continuous positive deviation of its well-being from the stationary state of the geographical environment, changing in stages in a discrete manner. This equation is complemented by the requirement of the constancy (preservation) of this state and its change, which, accordingly, is expressed in the existence of an inexhaustible basic fund and an investment development fund as part of the national wealth. The conditions and examples of the fulfillment of these postulates and the manifestation of the features of the sustainable development regime are revealed. The coefficients of the equations of the dynamics of the national wealth of Russia and China and their growth curves are calculated.
Economics and Mathematical Methods. 2025;61(3):92-103
pages 92-103 views

Mathematical analysis of economic models

Calibration of ARIMA-GARCH-Model of Basic Asset Price Based on Market Option Quotes
Arbuzov P.A., Golembiovskiy D.Y.
Abstract
The paper is devoted to the study of the possibility of calibrating the time series model of the underlying asset on the basis of market quotes of options on this asset. Market prices of options reflect the expectations of traders on the future dynamics of the underlying asset. At the beginning of the paper we present the general form of the ARIMA-GARCH time series model, as well as the form of the ARMA-GARCH model corresponding to the martingale risk-neutral probability measure. Next, the paper presents the formulation of the optimization problem of calibrating the risk-neutral model of logarithmic returns of the underlying asset based on the market prices of European options using the Monte Carlo method. The method of stochastic gradient approximation projection is applied to solve the problem. It is then shown how the form of the model changes when switching from a risk-neutral to a risk-averse probability measure under the assumption of the agent’s power utility function. The paper presents the results of calibrating the models on historical data on the quoted prices of the S&P500 index and the prices of European options on this index over the period from 2019 to 2023. Finally, the statistical test of Crnkovic–Drachman is performed to assess the accuracy of the calibrated models of the underlying asset returns for different future points in time.
Economics and Mathematical Methods. 2025;61(3):104-115
pages 104-115 views
Multidimensional Coherent Risk Measures and Their Properties
Kulikov A.V., Volkov N.V.
Abstract

Coherent risk measures are widely used in practice to calculate risk. Multidimensional coherent risk measures are important to use for companies and banks operating in different international markets. Here we introduce an example which clearly shows that multidimensional coherent risk measures reduce capital requirements on multi-asset or multi-currency markets. In this paper we consider two different approaches to define multidimensional coherent risk measures. The first approach is based on a cone-based exchange rate set, whereas the second employs random sets to account for liquidity constraints and other market frictions. Also constructive approach for multidimensional risk measures using one-dimensional law invariant ones is considered. We introduce the example of coherent risk measure which cannot be represented by the constructive approach. Two important properties of multidimensional risk measures such as law invariance and space consistency are investigated and their equivalent properties in terms of determining set and acceptance set are given. Then we consider a multidimensional generalization of Tail VaR and show that it satisfies space consistency and law invariance properties and provide an example which shows that multidimensional portfolio risk estimation using this risk measure gives an adequate result. JEL Classification: C39, D81. UDC: 519.25. For reference: Kulikov A. V., Volkov N. V. (2025). Multidimensional coherent risk measures and their properties. Economics and Mathematical Methods, 61, 3, 116–125.

Economics and Mathematical Methods. 2025;61(3):116-125
pages 116-125 views
Forecasting the Return and Volatility of Financial Instruments with Fuzzy Inference Systems and ARMA-GARCH Models
Sviyazov V.A.
Abstract
A modification of the GARCH model based on fuzzy inference system (FIS) is applied to the problem of returns and volatility forecasting of financial instruments. The proposed modification allows for the skewness and multiple clusters of volatility. It also performs a fuzzy switching between clusters and dynamically adapts their structure. Such an approach gives the opportunity to account for different volatility behavior under diverse conditions. Furthermore, with FIS-type models it is possible to incorporate large number of affecting factors without explicitly adding them to the model. These models also allow for estimation and dynamic adjustments of the affecting degree of these factors. First, for a series of instrument returns an ARMA model is built, then its residuals are used to calibrate the FIS-GARCH model which is further used to forecast volatility. More than 35 samples are examined, all of which are daily quotes of Russian financial market instruments. The stock, bond and money markets were studied. Calculations showed that for some time series, especially for stock market instruments, the fuzzy approach offers a result that exceeds the original autoregressive — conditional heteroskedasticity model. For several time series fuzzy system helps improve the forecast accuracy (it is also supported by statistical criteria). However, in most cases forecast errors of models with fuzziness and without such are comparable. One may state that due to their features fuzzy systems have a potential in forecasting returns and volatility on stock markets.
Economics and Mathematical Methods. 2025;61(3):126-138
pages 126-138 views

Согласие на обработку персональных данных с помощью сервиса «Яндекс.Метрика»

1. Я (далее – «Пользователь» или «Субъект персональных данных»), осуществляя использование сайта https://journals.rcsi.science/ (далее – «Сайт»), подтверждая свою полную дееспособность даю согласие на обработку персональных данных с использованием средств автоматизации Оператору - федеральному государственному бюджетному учреждению «Российский центр научной информации» (РЦНИ), далее – «Оператор», расположенному по адресу: 119991, г. Москва, Ленинский просп., д.32А, со следующими условиями.

2. Категории обрабатываемых данных: файлы «cookies» (куки-файлы). Файлы «cookie» – это небольшой текстовый файл, который веб-сервер может хранить в браузере Пользователя. Данные файлы веб-сервер загружает на устройство Пользователя при посещении им Сайта. При каждом следующем посещении Пользователем Сайта «cookie» файлы отправляются на Сайт Оператора. Данные файлы позволяют Сайту распознавать устройство Пользователя. Содержимое такого файла может как относиться, так и не относиться к персональным данным, в зависимости от того, содержит ли такой файл персональные данные или содержит обезличенные технические данные.

3. Цель обработки персональных данных: анализ пользовательской активности с помощью сервиса «Яндекс.Метрика».

4. Категории субъектов персональных данных: все Пользователи Сайта, которые дали согласие на обработку файлов «cookie».

5. Способы обработки: сбор, запись, систематизация, накопление, хранение, уточнение (обновление, изменение), извлечение, использование, передача (доступ, предоставление), блокирование, удаление, уничтожение персональных данных.

6. Срок обработки и хранения: до получения от Субъекта персональных данных требования о прекращении обработки/отзыва согласия.

7. Способ отзыва: заявление об отзыве в письменном виде путём его направления на адрес электронной почты Оператора: info@rcsi.science или путем письменного обращения по юридическому адресу: 119991, г. Москва, Ленинский просп., д.32А

8. Субъект персональных данных вправе запретить своему оборудованию прием этих данных или ограничить прием этих данных. При отказе от получения таких данных или при ограничении приема данных некоторые функции Сайта могут работать некорректно. Субъект персональных данных обязуется сам настроить свое оборудование таким способом, чтобы оно обеспечивало адекватный его желаниям режим работы и уровень защиты данных файлов «cookie», Оператор не предоставляет технологических и правовых консультаций на темы подобного характера.

9. Порядок уничтожения персональных данных при достижении цели их обработки или при наступлении иных законных оснований определяется Оператором в соответствии с законодательством Российской Федерации.

10. Я согласен/согласна квалифицировать в качестве своей простой электронной подписи под настоящим Согласием и под Политикой обработки персональных данных выполнение мною следующего действия на сайте: https://journals.rcsi.science/ нажатие мною на интерфейсе с текстом: «Сайт использует сервис «Яндекс.Метрика» (который использует файлы «cookie») на элемент с текстом «Принять и продолжить».