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Vol 65, No 8 (2025)

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Articles

Analysis of The Efficiency of Several Short-Term Solar Flare Forecasting Techniques Based on Observations of Different Solar Atmospheric Layers

Knyazeva I.S., Lysov I.I., Kurochkin E.A., Korelov M.S., Makarenko N.G.

Abstract

The operational solar flare forecast is an important task in solar physics. It is known to be inherently difficult, and its accuracy remains limited. The forecast quality metrics reported vary significantly, in particular, in recent studies that employ modern machine learning techniques. These studies often report high performance scores; however, they generally lack validation under real-time forecasting conditions, making it difficult to assess their actual effectiveness. Our study presents a comparative analysis of the real-world performance forecasts of solar flares of class ≥C and ≥M that occurred in the period from 2009 to 2024. We compare the forecasts published by the Space Weather Prediction Center on SolarMonitor with the empirical forecasting criteria based on solar radio observations developed by the Northwest Branch of the Special Astrophysical Observatory (SAO) of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
Geomagnetism and Aeronomy. 2025;65(8):1133–1141
pages 1133–1141 views

Evolution of the Total Magnetic and Kinetic Energy in the Convective Zone of a Star

Kislov R.A., Starchenko S.V.

Abstract

Qualitative estimates of the dynamics of the stellar convective zone as a whole are useful either when observation - data on a star are scares or as a preliminary step before constructing a more complex model that requires complicated computations. In this work, we present a qualitative model that describes the evolution of the mean square values of the velocity and magnetic field in the convective zone of a Sun-like star. The stability of possible equilibrium values of the mean squares of velocity and magnetic field is investigated. Solutions of the model equations are obtained for different values of buoyancy and the ratio of the convection and magnetic field timescales. It is shown that the following scenarios are possible: 1) the magnetic field increases starting from an arbitrary small initial value; 2) the magnetic field vanishes being initially finite; 3) the velocity and magnetic-field behavior in the vicinity of the stationary values and far from them can differ significantly. The amplification/decay of the mean-square magnetic field does not depend on the initial conditions, but is determined solely by the parameters of the stellar convective zone. The parameters of the Sun’s convective zone correspond to a boundary case between scenarios 1 and 2, and their small changes can lead to different outcomes.
Geomagnetism and Aeronomy. 2025;65(8):1142–1150
pages 1142–1150 views

On the Possibility of Using Decayless Kink Oscillations of Coronal Loops to Forecast Powerful Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections

Nechaeva A.B., Zimovets I.V., Sharykin I.N., Anfinogentov S.A.

Abstract

The paper studies decayless kink oscillations of solar coronal loops and changes in their behavior in active regions (ARs) before powerful solar flares (class M- and X) and in the absence of powerful flares. To this end, we examined 14 ARs with and 14 ARs without powerful flares. For each event, images obtained during 4 hours before the flare in the 171 Å and 94 Å AIA/SDO channels at 12-second intervals were analyzed. For ARs without powerful flares, arbitrary time intervals of similar duration were considered. Since the decayless oscillations have very low amplitude (1–2 AIA/SDO pixels), we used the Motion Magnification technique to amplify the amplitude of these oscillations. Time-distance maps were constructed using the processed images in the 171 Å channel, from which oscillatory patterns were extracted “manually”. Wavelet analysis was performed to detect changes in the oscillation period. No systematic changes were found. No obvious differences in the behavior of oscillations in ARs with and without powerful flares were detected either. In addition, information was obtained on coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from ARs in the vicinity of the time intervals under consideration. Based on the study of a small sample of events, we came to a preliminary conclusion that the registration and analysis of decayless kink oscillations of high (~100–600 Mm) coronal loops by the above method is not promising for predicting powerful flares and CMEs.
Geomagnetism and Aeronomy. 2025;65(8):1151-1166
pages 1151-1166 views

The Study of Possible Precursors of Solar Flares in the Active Region Noaa 12230 on December 9, 2014

Motorina G.G., Sharykin I.N., Zimovets I.V., Motorin A.S.

Abstract

The nature of precursors of solar flares and their relationship with subsequent flares are still not clear. This is due, in particular, to the lack of systematic statistical work, the relatively incomplete studies of individual events (out of the context of evolution of the entire active region), and the ambiguity of the term “precursor” itself. In this paper, we consider the dynamics of the NOAA 12230 active region (AR), in which a series of homologous flares (C5-C9) occurred on December 9, 2014 within 12 hours with a mean occurrence rate of about 2 hours. This AR is characterized by rapidly increasing flare activity followed by a rapid decay, which can serve as a good example for studying potential precursors of a series of flares. We investigated the evolution of AR NOAA 12230 over a relatively long time interval (several days) and its transition from the ‘no-flare’ state to the flare-active regime. For this purpose, we studied the magnetic field dynamics using SDO/HMI vector magnetograms, UV-EUV images based on SDO/AIA data, and GOES/XRS and RHESSI X-ray data. Thus, we identified several phases in the AR evolution in terms of the magnetic-field dynamics and flare activity. A method for building hourly integral maps of UV variations based on AIA 1600 A data was proposed. It was concluded that significantly increased variations in the chromospheric radiation against small soft X-ray and UV emission fluxes from the corona observed on December 8, 2014, together with the emergence of a magnetic flux, can be considered as a precursor to a series of flares. We also analyzed the appearance of X-ray sources of weak bursts before the series of flares. X-ray bursts developed in the same plasma structures where future flares occurred. The results obtained show the importance and prospects of using new methods of synoptic observations of the Sun for collecting statistics (“history”) of the energy release in AR in different ranges of the electromagnetic spectrum. In other words, it is important to monitor not only the dynamics of the magnetic field structure but also how the AR releases the stored magnetic energy. An integrated approach will allow the development of new methods for predicting flares, perhaps, more advanced than simply taking into account the magnetic field structure.
Geomagnetism and Aeronomy. 2025;65(8):1167–1182
pages 1167–1182 views

Interpretation of the Gnevyshev–Ohl Effect and Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays by Solar Activity

Grigorieva I.Y., Ozheredov V.A., Struminsky A.B.

Abstract

The available data for complete magnetic cycles from the 18th to the current moment of the 25th cycle are studied, relative to the maxima of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) in even cycles (in the 18th, the minimum of the SSN cycle is taken as 0): the sunspot number (SSN), the polar magnetic field (Bpol) and the Moscow neutron monitor (NM MOSC). The asymmetry of even and odd 11-year solar activity (SA) cycles in a complete 22-year magnetic cycle (visible in Bpol, GCR and SSN) corresponds to the Gnevyshev–Ohl rule (GOR). It is caused by the appearance of sunspot cycles in the decay phase of odd, which provide an additional non-zero magnetic flux necessary to form the maximum dipole magnetic field and complete the complete even-odd 22-year cycle. The numerical parameter is proposed that characterizes the GOR efficiency, which increases in the decay phase of SSN cycles. If the GOR is fulfilled, then within the framework of the Leighton model, the Bpol values have a constant contribution of the relic magnetic field <|−10| μT. An algorithm for searching for the beginning of SA cycles (integral maxima/minima) according to SSN, Bpol and NM MOSC data has been developed and applied. The times found do not coincide with each other, and the beginning of cycles according to Bpol always advances, and the greatest delay corresponds to the minimum of 23–24 SSN cycles.
Geomagnetism and Aeronomy. 2025;65(8):1183–1194
pages 1183–1194 views

The Use of Machine Learning for Compiling a Catalog of Solar Flares Based on Observations of the Siberian Radioheliograph

Shamsutdinova J.N., Rozhkova D.V., Kashapova L.K., Gubin A.V.

Abstract

In this paper, we present and discuss the results of using the machine learning methods to compile a catalog of solar flares observed with the Siberian Radioheliograph (SRH). The high sensitivity of the instrument, as well as the use of time profiles of the sum of correlation coefficients of antenna pairs (correlation plots) for event searching allowed us to include in the catalog the weak events, which are poorly distinguished in the time profiles of the emission flux. We proposed and tested a technique for selecting candidate events that allows the onset, maximum, and end of a solar flare to be determined by analyzing the derivative of the time profile given by a numerical function. Since the purpose of the catalog was to select wideband events, we introduced a criterion that allows automatic event selection based on simultaneous responses at several frequencies. Support Vector Machine (SVM) method was used in the test mode to assert the solar origin of the events and specify the quality of observational data. The volume of observational data obtained by the SRH in the second half of 2023 and in 2024 provides extensive material for both training and testing the model. The method was applied to the time profiles obtained in the 9–10 GHz band to divide them into “flare”, “background”, and “artifact”.
Geomagnetism and Aeronomy. 2025;65(8):1195-1205
pages 1195-1205 views

Dynamics of the Total Electric Current and its Components in ARs With Different Levels of Flare Activity

Fursyak Y.A.

Abstract

The work is aimed at studying the dynamics of the total electric current and its vertical and horizontal components in active regions (ARs) with different levels of flare activity. The electric current was calculated using Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI/SDO) data on the spatial distribution of the magnetic field vector components in the photosphere. 73 ARs observed in Cycle 24 were studied. Monitoring of each AR was carried out within ±35° relative to the central solar meridian, which corresponds to a time interval of 3–5 days. A number of features were identified in the behavior of the AR electric currents. In particular, it was shown that: 1) The absolute value of the total electric current density in most of the cases considered is determined by the horizontal electric current, which has a density 1.5–4.5 times higher than that of the vertical electric current. 2) In nine active regions (12% of all ARs analyzed), time intervals were identified when the mean unsigned density of the vertical electric current was approximately equal to or higher than the mean unsigned density of the horizontal electric current. 3) In ARs NOAA 11158 and 12673, in which an additional emergence of the magnetic flux was recorded during the monitoring period, an increase in the vertical, horizontal, and total electric currents occurred 18–20 hours before the first solar flares of high X-ray classes appeared. The growth time of the electric current parameters is significantly less than the growth time of the total unsigned magnetic flux of AR. 4) The highest absolute values of the total electric current density were recorded in ARs with a medium solar flare activity.
Geomagnetism and Aeronomy. 2025;65(8):1206–1220
pages 1206–1220 views

Coulomb Collisions And Electron Acceleration In Solar Flares

Tsap Y.T., Stepanov A.V., Kopylova Y.G., Goldvarg T.B.

Abstract

The acceleration of quasi-thermal particles by an electric field, whose velocity is greater than the thermal velocity, is considered in various interpretations for the dynamic brake force of electrons arising due to Coulomb collisions. It is shown that if the velocity of electrons exceeds the thermal velocity by a factor of two, then the forces of dynamic braking, taking into account electron-electron collisions (Spitzer approximation), and changes in the distribution function of background electrons under the influence of an electric field (Dreicer approximation), practically coincide. If the electric field is much smaller than the Dreicer field, then the Spitzer and Harrison (accounting both for electron-electron collisions and changes in the background electron distribution function) approaches match to within a coefficient. The implications of these results for the acceleration of quasi-thermal electrons in solar flares are discussed.
Geomagnetism and Aeronomy. 2025;65(8):1221–1226
pages 1221–1226 views

Multidecadal Variations in Solar Activity, Geomagnetic Field, Earth Rotation and Climate

Ptitsyna N.G., Demina I.M.

Abstract

We carried out wavelet and correlation analysis in the range of periods of 20–70 years of the following instrumental data series: the number of sunspots SN in 1700–2020, on the one hand, and the average global temperature and Earth rotation rate, as well as the H and Z components of the geomagnetic field measured in magnetic observatories starting from the end of the 19th century, on the other hand. It was obtained that over the past ~150–170 years, ~40-year and ~20-year variations have been observed in the SN wavelet spectra. In all spectra of geophysical data at this time, 60–70-year variation dominates, in addition, fluctuations with periods from ~20 to ~40 years appear in different time intervals. The rotation rate correlates with the temperature at the level of 0.8 and both processes are almost the same in phase. Their main common period is 69 years. The identified ~60–70-year variations in the spectra of the geomagnetic field are caused by changes in internal sources in the Earth’s liquid core. Our results suggest that the influence of solar activity does not manifest itself in ~60–70 year changes in the magnetic field components, as well as in the temperature of the Earth. At the same time, solar activity appears to be able to contribute directly to temperature changes with periods of ~35 years; the correlation coefficient of the SN and temperature spectra in this period range was ≈0.5.
Geomagnetism and Aeronomy. 2025;65(8):1227–1240
pages 1227–1240 views

Flare Activity of the Maximum Phase of the Current 25th Solar Activity Cycle. The Most Probable Sympathetic Events of 2024

Lebedev N.I., Ishkov V.N., Lebedev M.N.

Abstract

The main feature of the last year of the development of the 25th solar cycle of the second cycle of the 2nd epoch of reduced solar activity is a sharp increase in spot-forming activity and, especially, the number of flare-active areas and, accordingly, an increase in the number of large solar flares, the most powerful in the growth branch of the current solar cycle. This placed it above the low solar cycle 24 and the transitional cycle 23 in terms of the number of significant flares during the corresponding period. In the maximum phase of the current solar cycle 25, the number of sympathetic flares of significant classes (> M1) increased noticeably, which made it possible to begin studying both such flares themselves and the active regions.
Geomagnetism and Aeronomy. 2025;65(8):1241–1248
pages 1241–1248 views

Sectoral Structures of the Magnetic Field of the Sun and Their Differential Rotation in the 25th Activity Cycle

Berezin I.A., Tlatov A.G.

Abstract

The results of 10 years of observations of the Sun’s magnetic fields using the STOP magnetograph at the Kislovodsk Mountain Astronomical Station are considered. The distribution of large-scale magnetic fields is analyzed. The change in the polarity of magnetic fields is investigated based on data from the STOP and SDO/HMI magnetographs. A comparison is also made between the lines of polarity inversion of large-scale magnetic fields and the position of solar filaments and prominences observed in the Hα line. During the solar activity cycle, sector structures repeatedly penetrate the polar regions, which is confirmed by both magnetographic observations and measurements in the Hα line. We observe signs that the inversion of the Sun’s global magnetic field occurred in the first half of 2025. Differential rotation of the large-scale field has been detected, manifested in characteristic 27- and 14-day variations at the equator, corresponding to two- and four-sector structures of the magnetic field. Four-sector magnetic structures demonstrate more pronounced differential rotation compared to two-sector structures, with a more noticeable slowdown from the equator to the poles. We also observe a north-south asymmetry in the differential rotation of magnetic fields.
Geomagnetism and Aeronomy. 2025;65(8):1249–1257
pages 1249–1257 views

Acceleration and Scattering of Non- Thermal Electrons with Coordinated Interaction with Non-Stationary Whistler Turbulence Generated by a Given External Source

Filatov L.V., Melnikov V.F.

Abstract

The interaction of non-thermal electrons injected into a flare loop and whistler turbulence in it is investigated. Turbulence generated by an external source is considered with spatial and temporal characteristics similar to those of electron injection; it is assumed that both of these processes occur at the same time and in the same place during energy release in a flash. The peculiarities of the non-thermal electron distributions transformation in energy and pitch angles are revealed, taking into account the reverse effect of electrons on the whistlers’ turbulence. It is established that the power of the turbulence source and the turbulent capture of non-thermal electrons significantly affect the process of additional acceleration. In contrast to the model with a given stationary distribution of Whistler turbulence, in the model with a consistent interaction, there is a significant decrease in the energy density of turbulence, which significantly reduces the efficiency of electron acceleration.
Geomagnetism and Aeronomy. 2025;65(8):1258–1266
pages 1258–1266 views

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