Foreign Migrants and Criminal Activity in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)

The article offers an analysis of ethno-demographic data on administrative offenses and criminal offenses committed by migrants in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) in the period from 2021–2023. Based on the analysis of statistical data, applying the mathematical method of exponential smoothing, the authors of the article presented a forecast of possible crimes by migrants (until 2030). The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) is the largest region of the Russian Federation; in spatial terms, the territorial structure of the republic's economy is formed by districts (uluses) united into economic zones. To consider the dynamics of crimes committed by migrants, the authors assessed the ethno-demographic situation in the economic zones of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia): there is a trend towards an increase in the number of Central Asian and South-Eastern peoples. Over the past 20 years, the number of ethnic groups common before 2002 – Belarusians, Ukrainians, Moldovans, Kazakhs, Azerbaijanis – has decreased, and a gradual outflow of the Slavic group of peoples has been observed. During the analysis of official statistical data of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), it was revealed that many crimes are committed by migrants from Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. They mainly commit crimes under the chapters of the Criminal Code of the RF “violations against the order of administration” (37%), followed by crimes against property (28%), crimes against life and health (13%), and crimes against sexual inviolability (10%). This article is of great practical significance, as it is aimed at developing ways to harmonize interethnic relations and improve national security in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia).

ethnic groups, migrants, migration policy, dynamics of offenses and crimes, mathematical method of exponential smoothing