Mathematical Models of Migration Balance and Migration Attitudes in Armenia

The purpose of the study is to provide a quantitative explanation of the migration balance and migration attitudes in Armenian society. A linear regression model has been constructed to explain the dependence of the migration balance on variables at the macro level, including annual GDP growth, the internal and external political state of Armenia. Data from the Armenian Statistical Service on statistics of border movements and annual GDP growth were used. The foreign policy state is represented by a variable taking the values “Truce”, “War”, and “Intense War”. The internal political state is represented by a variable taking the values “Open conflict”, “Latent conflict”, “Balanced”, “Positive expectations”, and “High expectations”. Based on the model, an estimate of the migration balance for 2023 was calculated. According to a sociological survey conducted in November 2022 using the structural modeling method (Structural Equation Modeling), two models were built that explain migration attitudes in society through the socio-economic characteristics of the respondent and characteristics of his political culture, including: the presence of a labor migrant in the family, the age of the respondent, approval of the 2018 revolution in Armenia, the realization of expectations from the revolution, a sense of political competence, political subjectivity and patriotism. The results of the study can be used to forecast the migration balance and migration attitudes in the society, as well as strategic planning and management of migration processes in Armenia.

migration balance, Armenia, post-Soviet period, migration attitudes, regression model, structural models, First Nagorno-Karabakh war, Second Nagorno-Karabakh war, forecasting, strategic planning, strategic management