Economic and Natural Factors of Spatial Heterogeneity of Forest Carbon Emissions in Russia in the 2010s

Increasing the net carbon sequestration of forests is the only way for Russia to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. In this context, along with measures to increase the area and quality of stands, ways to reduce carbon emissions due to human activities and natural disturbances are important. The article uses regression models of panel data to analyze the spatial heterogeneity of carbon emissions in the Russian forests in 2009–2021 as measured by Global Forest Watch project tools, depending on economic (volume of logging, government spending on forest management, forest protection and forest fire measures) and natural (scale of forest fires and outbreaks of mass reproduction of insect pests) factors. Logging and forest fires are expected to have the greatest impact on forest carbon losses, while spending on the performance of state functions in the sphere of forest relations has almost no response in the reduction of carbon emissions. Thus, in fact, the goal of preserving forests through public investment in appropriate measures has not yet been achieved. The resulting set of regression models can be used to predict the dynamics of the regional effects of forest carbon losses under changes in logging volumes and various trajectories of the dynamics of forest fire activity. Such analysis will be critically necessary for the formation of regional plans for greenhouse gas emission reduction, taking into account the maximum use of the potential of forests’ net carbon sequestration build-up.