No 3 (2025)

Articles

The role of group support meetings in the formation of professional identity among novice psychologists

Livak N.S., Suhanova A.O.

Abstract

The article addresses the issue of forming professional identity among novice psychologists-consultants in the context of social and professional uncertainty. The relevance of the topic is due to the fact that at the stage of entering the profession, young specialists face a high level of anxiety, professional fears, and insecurity, which hinders the formation of their professional "self." The aim of the study is to identify the effectiveness of a group supportive format in reducing anxiety and strengthening identity. The methodological foundation consists of the concepts of professional identity by I.S. Kon, E. Erikson, J. Marcia, L.B. Schneider, and Yu.P. Poverenkov. In the empirical study, the sample consisted of n = 8 participants who underwent the developed program. The program included elements of the Balint approach, cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT), acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT), and solution-focused brief therapy (SFBT). The Spivak-Hanin anxiety questionnaire and the uncertainty tolerance scale were used. It is worth noting the high level of anxiety among novice specialists, caused by the blurred professional boundaries and the lack of clear normative criteria for admission to consulting practice. The results showed a statistically significant reduction in both personal and situational anxiety (p " 0.01), as well as an increase in tolerance to uncertainty (p " 0.05). Qualitative analysis revealed an increase in confidence, reflexivity, and awareness of the right to professional activity. The developed group supportive program proved effective as a space for professional formation and the establishment of a stable professional identity among psychologists. The obtained data suggest recommending the use of similar groups in universities and professional communities as a form of psychological support for novice specialists.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(3):1-13
pages 1-13 views

Evolution of U.S. Regime Change Strategies during the Cold War

Arslanov B.A., Fartusov E.S.

Abstract

This article examines the evolution of US regime change strategies from the end of World War II to the present day. The research analyzes the transformation of American interventionist methods in the internal affairs of sovereign states, tracing the shift from direct CIA covert operations during the Cold War to contemporary "hybrid" forms of influence. The study is based on declassified CIA documents, National Security Council directives, Congressional materials, and extensive academic literature. The paper provides detailed analysis of specific cases of US intervention in Iran (1953), Guatemala (1954), Chile (1973), and various Middle Eastern, Latin American, and African countries. Special attention is given to the institutionalization of regime change mechanisms through pseudo-civilian structures such as NED, USAID, which operate under the cover of "democracy promotion" and "civil society development." The scientific novelty lies in the systematic comparative analysis of different historical periods, revealing the continuity of American interventionist policy despite changing tactical approaches. The research demonstrates how classical CIA operations evolved into sophisticated "soft power" instruments while maintaining the same strategic objectives. The study also examines Soviet and Russian responses to US regime change strategies, including diplomatic countermeasures, support for allied governments, and development of alternative international structures. The main conclusion emphasizes that contemporary methods of forced "democratization" do not lead to sustainable development but instead cause regional destabilization and undermine international legal principles. The author argues for the restoration of genuine collective security systems based on respect for sovereignty and non-interference in internal affairs of states.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(3):14-30
pages 14-30 views

The Return of Bloc Politics: Historical Parallels Between BRICS and the Non-Aligned Movement

Ianitskii E.A.

Abstract

This study examines the transformation of the international system from a unipolar order to a new bloc architecture. The analysis focuses on two key Global South formations – BRICS and the Non-Aligned Movement – investigating their evolution within the context of global geopolitical changes after 2022. The research employs comparative and statistical analysis with a systematic approach, analyzing UN voting patterns, economic indicators of BRICS+ countries, and official statements. The methodology includes historical analysis of international organizations' evolution and content analysis of diplomatic documents. The study's key contribution is the conceptualization of "soft alignment" as a new form of international relations, distinguished from Cold War blocs by the absence of hierarchy and ideological coercion. The research reveals a correlation between countries' participation in China's Belt and Road Initiative and their voting on Ukraine-related UN resolutions. The author demonstrates the Non-Aligned Movement's transformation from passive neutrality to active strategic autonomy. The systematic analysis of UN votes on Ukrainian and Palestinian issues illustrates the changing balance of power in the international arena. The research identifies four key factors shaping African states' positions: regime security, economic interests, historical memory, and disappointment with Western solidarity. Special attention is paid to Western sanctions policy and attempts to interfere in sovereign states' internal affairs. The findings indicate the formation of a new international order based on multiple decision-making centers, rejection of any country group's monopoly on international law interpretation, and recognition of each state's right to its own development model.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(3):31-47
pages 31-47 views

Military-technical cooperation between Russia and Cambodia in the context of geopolitical competition in Southeast Asia

Pichkhun P.

Abstract

This study is dedicated to the analysis of military-technical cooperation (MTC) between the Russian Federation and the Kingdom of Cambodia in the context of the overall strategic partnership between Russia and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). In the context of growing geopolitical competition in Southeast Asia, where tensions between the US and China are increasing, ASEAN countries are striving to maintain neutrality and diversify their foreign policy ties. In this context, Russia is attempting to position itself as a neutral and stable partner through participation in multilateral formats (ADMM+, EAS) and the development of bilateral relations, including cooperation with Cambodia. The study reveals a contradiction between the formally proclaimed status of strategic partnership and the actual limitations of interaction with Cambodia, especially in the area of MTC. The focus is on assessing existing forms of cooperation, the reasons for their low intensity, and the prospects for deepening ties considering geopolitical, economic, and institutional constraints. The study employs methods of comparative analysis, an institutional approach, and geopolitical contextual analysis to identify structural and political factors that restrict MTC between Russia and Cambodia. The scientific novelty of the article lies in a systematic assessment of Cambodia's role as a potential partner for Russia in the field of MTC within the broader context of interaction with ASEAN. The work demonstrates that despite symbolic steps, such as Cambodia's participation in joint exercises and visits by Russian military ships, actual military-technical cooperation remains fragmented and is not backed by substantive initiatives. One reason for this is the lack of mutual strategic priorities: Cambodia primarily orients itself towards China and Vietnam, while Russia is focused on relations with Vietnam and Myanmar. In addition, Russia's foreign policy isolation and Western sanctions limit opportunities for arms supplies and project implementation. It is concluded that without changing the current geopolitical situation and enhancing Russian involvement in regional institutions, cooperation with Cambodia will remain marginal. Nevertheless, with political will and institutional support, multilateral interaction formats (ADMM+, EAS) could serve as a basis for building trust and expanding dialogue, including in areas of MTC.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(3):48-55
pages 48-55 views

Chinese Humanitarian to African countries within the framework of the "China-Africa" forum

Qiu S.

Abstract

This study is dedicated to the analysis of humanitarian aid from the People's Republic of China to African countries within the framework of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), which has become a key instrument of China's foreign policy in the region since the beginning of the 21st century. In the context of chronic resource shortages, social instability, environmental challenges, and the repercussions of its colonial past, African countries require support that promotes their sustainable development. China, positioning itself as a representative of the Global South, actively develops humanitarian cooperation in the fields of health, food security, education, emergency response, and climate risk mitigation. The research examines how China's humanitarian aid is integrated into broader processes of economic and political expansion, serves to strengthen strategic partnerships, and influences the changing global order and balance of power in international relations. Special attention is given to the political motivations, ideological aspects of aid, and the peculiarities of the Chinese model of interaction with African countries compared to Western donors. The study employs an interdisciplinary approach, including the analysis of FOCAC documents, official statements, expert assessments, international statistics, as well as a critical review of the scientific literature and a comparative study of aid models. The novelty of the research lies in its comprehensive assessment of China's humanitarian aid as an element of foreign policy doctrine that combines ideological rhetoric with pragmatic interests. The author reveals that through FOCAC, China implements a "South-South" cooperation model, contrasting it with conditional aid practices from the West. China's humanitarian strategy includes food and medical support, infrastructure projects, education, and climate adaptation while actively utilizing memories of colonialism and anti-hegemonic rhetoric to enhance its influence. It concludes that despite positive outcomes, opacity, selectivity, and weak coordination with international institutions raise questions about the long-term sustainability and effectiveness of China's aid model, necessitating further scholarly research. The study demonstrates that China's humanitarian aid goes beyond short-term crisis responses and is increasingly used as a tool of "soft power" aimed at expanding political influence, accessing natural resources, and strengthening China's global image as a responsible leader of the Global South.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(3):56-69
pages 56-69 views

Creative formats of the eco-protest movement in contemporary Russia.

Kachusov I.M., Mel'nik N.B.

Abstract

Environmental issues are one of the most frequent subjects of protest activity in modern Russia. Using the examples of Russia's environmental conflicts from 2015 to 2025, the article examines the creative forms of the modern eco-protest movement – performances, art installations, flash mobs, etc. Their distinctive feature is that they affect the subject of conflict indirectly, through symbols and media images. The key features of such actions can be noted for their relative safety in the face of increasing administrative and military pressure on activists, their potential to gain wide media coverage and the ability to bring a local problem to a national or global level. The article describes and classifies the main types of creative environmental actions. The study was carried out using the case study method and is theoretically based on the concept of "protest repertoires", the theory of information agenda formation (agenda-settings), the theory of frames and the concept of environmental justice. The authors conclude that increased repressive pressure on environmental activists in Russia contributes to the expansion of the repertoire of protest activity through creative formats, which are alternative means. Protest expressions are also an important tool for scaling up and resolving the conflict., forming stable protest coalitions and strengthening the social base of the environmental movement. The ecoprotest movement in modern Russia is being transformed into creative forms that are safer; they allow channeling protest sentiments and environmental activity in the field of legality; they strive to attract broad public masses using positive social activity or the power of artistic, symbolic, allegorical; they are focused on expanding the field of conflict by attracting new participants and raising the status of the conflict; They actively use digital tools to create virtual and widely distribute real eco-protest actions.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(3):70-85
pages 70-85 views

Vietnam’s Diplomatic Strategy in the Mekong Subregion: Approaches to Balancing amid U.S.–China Geostrategic Rivalry

Ponka T.I., Nguyen T.D.

Abstract

This article analyzes Vietnam’s diplomatic strategy in the Mekong subregion amid intensifying geostrategic rivalry between the United States and China. The relevance of the topic is determined by the growing importance of the Mekong subregion as a key arena of great-power competition in Southeast Asia, where political, economic, environmental, and institutional interests intersect, directly affecting the national security and sustainable development of the lower Mekong countries, particularly Vietnam. The object of the study is Vietnam’s foreign policy in the Mekong subregion. The subject is the strategic approaches, mechanisms, and instruments employed by Hanoi to implement a diplomacy of balance between the United States and China. The purpose of the research is to identify the specific features of Vietnam’s diplomacy under U.S.–China rivalry and to assess the effectiveness of the “bamboo diplomacy” strategy in safeguarding national interests. The methodological framework draws on the balance-of-power concept in international relations, as well as content analysis, comparative analysis, and case study methods. The scientific novelty of the study lies in its comprehensive analysis of Vietnam’s balancing strategy in the Mekong subregion, with emphasis on institutional mechanisms of influence. The results show that Vietnam demonstrates a flexible and subtle diplomacy within both U.S.- and China-led integration initiatives, extracting benefits from both sides to enhance its capacity to address non-traditional security threats while simultaneously reducing the risk of dependence on a single great power. The study concludes that, although the balancing strategy enables Vietnam to preserve autonomy and maximize national interests in the short term, it is insufficient to address long-term structural challenges such as water security and climate change. Consequently, Vietnam needs to move toward a more proactive role in shaping the regional security architecture.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(3):86-100
pages 86-100 views

China and Germany in the system of contemporary international relations: political and economic relations

Liu C.

Abstract

The article discusses the political and economic relations between the People's Republic of China and the Federal Republic of Germany as one of the key components of the modern global architecture of international relations. The subject of the study is a comprehensive analysis of the interaction between the two largest world economies, which have significant influence on political and economic processes in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. Given the strategic importance of China and Germany, the author focuses on both the historical development of bilateral relations and their current state in the context of global turbulence. The emphasis is on the role of these states in areas such as climate agenda, digital transformation, reform of international institutions, trade security, technological exchange, and sustainable development. Attention is drawn to the institutional mechanisms of interaction, multilateral dialogue, and bilateral agreements that define the nature of the partnership. An important element of the subject area is the identification of contradictions related to the differences in political systems, approaches to human rights, as well as competition in high-tech industries. The research methodology is based on a combination of systemic, historical-political, and comparative analysis using statistical data, official sources, expert assessments, and international strategic documents. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the deep and comprehensive assessment of the current state of Sino-German relations, taking into account their multi-level nature and rapidly changing international context. The article offers a comprehensive view of the challenges and opportunities arising in the process of political and economic dialogue between the two states, including in the context of increasing geopolitical competition, the transition to a multipolar world, the climate crisis, and rising tensions in global trade. The author argues that the relations between the PRC and the FRG represent an example of a strategic partnership that is in the process of adapting to new challenges and reassessing mutual expectations. The conclusion is made about the necessity to balance between economic benefit and political values, between cooperation and competition. It is predicted that flexibility and pragmatism in the approach to bilateral relations will become the defining factors of their long-term stability.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(3):101-114
pages 101-114 views

National Security of China in the Context of Military and Political Threats in the Asia-Pacific Region

Dubrovskiy I.R.

Abstract

The present study is devoted to analyzing the military-political confrontation between the People's Republic of China and the United States of America in the Indo-Pacific region. The focus is on Washington's strategic approaches to deter China, the expansion of the U.S. military presence, the development of new operational concepts, the strengthening of alliance ties, and the deployment of missile systems near Chinese borders. Simultaneously, China's countermeasures aimed at mitigating threats from the U.S. are examined, including the modernization of the People's Liberation Army of China (PLA), the development of reconnaissance and command systems, electronic warfare, space technologies, and missile armaments. Special attention is given to the perception of these processes in Chinese state and expert sources and their influence on the formation of a stable atmosphere of strategic rivalry that sets long-term parameters for regional security. The study is based on the analysis of publications from Chinese state media, military documents, expert assessments, and a comparative examination of American and Chinese strategic concepts. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the comprehensive consideration of the interaction between the two largest world powers in the Indo-Pacific region through the lens of Chinese evaluations and strategic documents. Unlike most existing works, the focus is on China's perception of threats and specific countermeasures taken by the PLA. It is shown that the U.S. views the strategy of deterring China as a priority, strengthening alliances and operational capabilities, while Beijing seeks to deprive Washington of advantages through asymmetric means, including missile forces, C4ISR systems, and electronic warfare. The conclusion is drawn that the emerging dynamics of military rivalry lead to increased strategic distrust, heightening the risk of escalation, and in the absence of crisis management mechanisms, could turn the Indo-Pacific region into one of the key areas of confrontation in the 21st century.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(3):115-128
pages 115-128 views

The impact of the "Arab Spring" on the domestic political situation in France (2011-2024)

Rebizov N.I., Karpunina P.S.

Abstract

The relevance of this study is due, first, to the increase in social tensions within French society against the backdrop of internal political instability; secondly, to the growth of internal political instability in the countries of the Middle East and Africa in the context of delayed consequences of the «Arab Spring». The object of this study is internal political changes in France (2011–2024). The subject of the study is the influence of the «Arab Spring» on the domestic political situation in France (2011–2024). The aim of this study is to determine the impact of the «Arab Spring» on the domestic political situation in France. In the course of this study, the authors had the following tasks: to study the history of the «Arab Spring» and determine its impact on countries of the Middle East and Africa, to determine the level of influence of the «Arab Spring» on the domestic political situation in France. This study is based on the theory of neorealism in international relations, which implies the permanent struggle of states for their own national interests. Armed conflicts are often the instruments of this struggle, owing to the lack of a central authority capable of controlling the activities of States in the international arena. The main conclusions of the study are definition the "Arab Spring" as a key destabilizing factor of the domestic political situation in the countries of the Middle East and Africa; identification of increased terrorist activity in Syria and the Sahel states as a delayed consequence of the "Arab Spring"; identification of an increasing number of refugees from the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic and the Sahel states as a key "tool" of impact of the «Arab Spring» to the domestic situation in France. The scientific novelty of this study is based on the findings of this study.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(3):129-149
pages 129-149 views

Russian-Kazakhstan Cooperation in the Field of Education: Legal Framework, Modern Challenges, and Prospects

Osipova A.V.

Abstract

The article examines the features of Russo-Kazakh relations in the humanitarian and educational spheres as key areas of bilateral cooperation. Special attention is paid to the historical prerequisites for the formation of interactions, as well as the legal framework that ensured the progressive development of integration after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The main stages of the normative and legal framework for educational cooperation are analyzed, starting from the first intergovernmental agreements of the 1990s and concluding with modern initiatives within the Eurasian Economic Union and bilateral treaties of the 2020s. The paper emphasizes the role of higher education institutions, academic exchanges, and joint projects in strengthening the scientific potential of both countries. It also discusses in detail the foreign policy and economic factors complicating relations between Russia and Kazakhstan and their possible impact on educational interaction. The methodological foundation of the study is based on a combination of historical-comparative analysis, which reveals the dynamics of bilateral relations at different stages, and an institutional approach focused on studying the role of the regulatory framework and international organizations in shaping cooperation. The novelty of the research lies in the comprehensive examination of educational cooperation between Russia and Kazakhstan as a sustainable element of bilateral relations, which maintains a positive dynamic even amidst geopolitical instability and political disagreements. The study demonstrates that humanitarian interaction, primarily in the field of education, can perform a stabilizing function in the system of international contacts. The conclusions of the research confirm that the establishment of university branches, the expansion of academic programs, and joint scientific projects lay the foundation for long-term partnerships and contribute to the preservation of cultural closeness between the two nations. At the same time, the prospects for cooperation directly depend on the ability of the parties to adapt to new challenges related to changing international contexts, while also balancing national interests and alliance obligations.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(3):150-163
pages 150-163 views

From Smuggling to Armed Drones: The Evolution of Unmanned Technologies in the Arsenal of Latin American Organized Crime

Tsimashchenia V.A.

Abstract

The subject of research is the use of unmanned aerial vehicles by organized criminal groups in Latin America and the Caribbean Basin countries during 2010–2025. The transformation of drones from tools for drug smuggling across the US-Mexico border to full-fledged combat platforms capable of delivering precision strikes with explosive devices is analyzed. The evolution of tactical UAV application by major cartels (CJNG, Sinaloa, Nueva Familia Michoacana) and insurgent groups (ELN, FARC) is examined. Technical modification of commercial drones into improvised bombers with thermal imaging, FPV systems, and autonomous navigation is investigated. The geographical spread of the threat from Mexican border states to urban slums of Brazil, prisons of Ecuador, and gang territories in Haiti is studied. State countermeasures, international cooperation, and legal regulation of UAV circulation in thirteen regional countries are analyzed. The methodological foundation includes open source intelligence (OSINT) data analysis with incident verification through geolocation of video materials, content analysis of official documents from US and Latin American law enforcement agencies, and reports from international organizations (UNODC, INTERPOL, OAS). A comparative case-study approach is applied to identify regional patterns and functional classification of drone application methods. Verification is conducted through cross-checking independent sources and comparison with official statistics from thirteen regional countries. The research presents a comprehensive study of the drone threat from organized crime in the LAC region, filling a gap in security studies. A functional typology of UAV application (surveillance → logistics → violence) and taxonomy of criminal platforms has been developed. Concepts of "adaptive criminality" in technological context, "technological spillover" between sectors, and a model of "drone arms race" have been introduced. Critical turning points in threat development (2020, 2022-2023) have been identified and connections established between the Ukrainian conflict and the spread of combat drone use among Latin American cartels. Threat mapping has been conducted with correlation between drug trafficking geography and state institutional weakness. Prognostic scenarios for 2025-2030 and recommendations for improving international countermeasures against criminal use of unmanned technologies, applicable to other world regions as well, have been formulated.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(3):164-189
pages 164-189 views

Historical Evolution of Strategic Partnership between China and Russia (1992–2024)

Xue F.

Abstract

The object of this research is the strategic cooperation relationship between the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation from 1992 to 2024. The subject of the study focuses on the periodization of historical stages of Sino-Russian relations, the formation of institutional mechanisms, the evolution of strategic factors, and models of international interaction. The purpose of the study is to identify and analyze the key factors determining the development of strategic cooperation between China and Russia, as well as to explain how this bilateral interaction gradually institutionalized under changing international circumstances. To achieve this goal, the work examines the stages of evolution and institutionalization of the strategic partnership, analyzes its driving forces and limitations, and assesses the new model of international relations emerging from this interaction and its prospects. The theoretical foundation of the research is realism, while also incorporating elements of constructivism and institutionalism to analyze the interests, interactions, and cooperation mechanisms in Sino-Russian relations. Furthermore, literature analysis, case studies, and comparative methods are used to study the history, practice, and influence of the strategic cooperation between the two countries. The scientific novelty of the work lies in the fact that based on domestic and foreign studies, the dissertation represents the first attempt to systematically trace the entire process of evolution of the Sino-Russian strategic partnership from 1992 to 2024 and highlight how external pressure has facilitated the deepening of cooperation mechanisms. Unlike existing studies, special attention is paid to the logic of institutional evolution and interaction under sanction pressure. The work concludes that the Sino-Russian strategic partnership has formed a complex cooperation system in political, military-security, energy, financial spheres, as well as within multilateral mechanisms. This system simultaneously reflects external pressure, emphasized by realism, and exhibits features of institutionalization and identity construction within the framework of institutionalism and constructivism. Despite the presence of asymmetry and potential contradictions, institutionalized cooperation and strategic trust lend stability and uniqueness to Sino-Russian relations in the modern international order. In the future, the comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Russia will develop towards greater complexity, innovation, and sustainability.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(3):190-214
pages 190-214 views

Identification and identity in the information age: main issue and conflict risks

Toschev V.E.

Abstract

This study examines the risks and threats associated with issues of identification and identity in the context of digitalized and information-saturated public sphere. The analysis emphasizes both the cyber and ideological dimensions of information security discourse. Problems related to identification—as one of the fundamental mechanisms in the construction of identities—are predominantly considered within the framework of cybersecurity. The second part of the study focuses on the ideological implications of the modern concept of identity. The main problems highlighted by the author in this part include: the threat of value polarization in society, the radicalization of certain segments of the population, the rise of populism, and the creation of risks for building a shared civic identity. The analysis draws on securitization theory, framing security as a discursive construct, and employs comparative examination of Russian and American approaches to information security, supported by «case studies» to highlight conflict dynamics. The first part of this study contains the following list threats: difficulty of identifying a cybercriminal; problem of the state using incomplete data about citizens; a potential conflict between the government and big-data companies; using other people's digital profiles and figures on the Internet in order to misinform about opinion makers. The politico-ideological section stresses the role of «identification thinking», which fosters biased perceptions of certain value systems, often through their dehumanization. Processes such as the formation of «echo chambers» contribute to the decline of public deliberation, the closure of social groups, and, consequently, to radicalization and social polarization. In the long term, these dynamics may encourage populist practices that further hinder the development of a shared civic identity.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(3):215-232
pages 215-232 views

Russian-Chinese Trade in the Context of Global Challenges: Dynamics, Issues, and Prospects

Li N.

Abstract

The subject of the study is the trade and economic relations between Russia and China from the early 1990s to 2024. Their evolution is considered in the context of global economic and political changes, including the collapse of the Soviet Union, China's accession to the WTO, the consequences of global financial crises, and the impact of sanctions on Russia. The article analyzes three key stages of cooperation development: the establishment and barter schemes of the early 1990s, a period of stable growth and institutionalization in the 2000s, and the deepening of partnership in the 2010s and 2020s, characterized by rapid growth in trade turnover and a shift to settlements in national currencies. Special attention is given to the structural features of mutual trade, the role of cross-border interaction, and the influence of foreign policy factors on the dynamics of bilateral relations. The work employs historical-economic and comparative methods, as well as an analysis of statistical data on the foreign trade of Russia and China, which have allowed for the identification of patterns and trends in the development of cooperation. The scientific novelty of this research lies in the comprehensive examination of Russian-Chinese trade and economic relations as a sequential process consisting of three stages, each characterized by its own mechanisms and challenges. Unlike existing works, the emphasis is placed on identifying the contradiction between the extensive growth of trade turnover and the persistent structural imbalance in the commodity nomenclature. The findings of the study confirm that despite record trade turnover and institutional efforts to deepen cooperation, bilateral relations remain vulnerable to external shocks and depend on a limited range of commodity categories. The prospects for sustainable development are linked to the diversification of Russian exports, modernization of infrastructure, expansion of investment interaction, and the development of new mechanisms for protecting economic partnership from sanction pressures.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(3):233-247
pages 233-247 views

The influence of transnational terrorism on India-Pakistan relations

Dzhigkaev A.H.

Abstract

The article examines the impact of cross-border terrorism on the development of bilateral relations between India and Pakistan in 1989–2025. Particular attention is paid to the attack on tourists in Pahalgam on 22 April 2025, which became a turning point in the dynamics of the conflict. The features of terrorist activity, the activities of terrorist groups, routes of penetration across the Line of Control, sources of financing, the use of information and communication technologies, the choice of civilian and symbolic targets are analyzed. Particular attention is paid to how India and Pakistan respond to terrorist attacks and how this changes the parameters of interaction between the parties. Changes in diplomatic rhetoric, trade and visa regimes, management of the Indus River waters, the intensity of cross-border incidents and the readiness for limited military strikes are considered. The study examines the relationship between terrorist activity and the domestic policies of India and Pakistan, crisis management mechanisms (activities of directors general for military operations, hotlines) and the risks of nuclear escalation in the logic of "stability – instability". The role of external actors and international sanctions regimes is analyzed separately. The methods of event analysis, comparative analysis of the crises of 2001–2002, 2008, 2016, 2019 and 2025, the escalation process, content analysis of official statements and the media, as well as legal analysis of the Indus Waters Treaty are used. The theoretical optics of the study includes the concepts of "stability – instability" and "escalation ladder". The scientific novelty of the work lies in explaining the link "terrorism – diplomacy – water resources" and clarifying the concept of cross-border terrorism as an instrument of pressure. For the first time, an “escalation cascade” model (terrorist attack → public pressure → demonstrative strikes → diplomatic or water pressure → pause) is presented, based on indicators: selection of civilian targets, infiltration across the Line of Control, signals under the Indus Waters Treaty, elite rhetoric. Analysis of the crises of 2001–2002, 2008, 2016, 2019 and 2025 revealed a shift from attacks on security forces to strikes on the economy and tourism and the institutionalization of the “water lever”. The combination of military responses and water uncertainty increases the risk of nuclear escalation. Conclusion: cross-border terrorism remains a key factor in India-Pakistan relations.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(3):248-258
pages 248-258 views

New Social Cleavages and the Transformation of Italy’s Party-Political System in the Second Republic

Zaitsev I.I.

Abstract

The subject of the study is the transformation of Italy’s party-political system in the Second Republic and the formation of new social cleavages affecting electoral behavior and the configuration of the party landscape. The object of the study is the contemporary Italian political space, including the main parties: the Democratic Party (PD), the League (Lega), Brothers of Italy (FdI), and the Five Star Movement (M5S), as well as their electoral and organizational strategies. The author examines in detail aspects such as the influence of Euro-skepticism, the immigration cleavage, regionalism, cultural and value conflicts, and populist trends on the fragmentation of the party system. Special attention is paid to the dynamics of party support across different regions, including North–South differences, as well as the interaction between party strategies, digital media channels, and intra-party organizational modernization. The analysis explores how new lines of conflict and structural changes in the party system shape long-term trends in political mobilization, redistribution of electoral support, and strengthening or weakening of party blocs. The study highlights under-researched aspects of the Second Republic, including the complex interplay of cultural values, migration, and regional specificity. The study employs a comparative-historical analysis, the social cleavages framework of Lipset and Rokkan, and Sartori’s model of party systems. The empirical base includes ISTAT demographic statistics, enabling the identification of spatial and temporal patterns in party system transformation. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the integrated synthesis of social cleavage theory and empirical analysis of the Second Republic, allowing the identification of new lines of political fragmentation and assessment of their systemic impact on the party-political structure. For the first time in Russian and international Italian studies, under-researched aspects are analyzed: the immigration cleavage as part of a multidimensional conflict, regional differences between North and South, the role of digital media channels, and intra-party organizational modernization. The study demonstrates that new lines of conflict contribute to the redistribution of electoral support among right-wing, populist, and centrist parties, increasing the fragmentation and volatility of the party system. The Italian case illustrates the importance of accounting for cultural and structural factors in comparative analyses of European party systems.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(3):259-274
pages 259-274 views

Cooperation between Brazil and African countries in promoting international development under Presidents Lula da Silva and D. Rousseff (2003 - 2016)

Dju O.

Abstract

The article examines Brazil's policy in the field of international cooperation for development with African countries during the presidencies of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Dilma Rousseff (2003–2016). Particular attention is given to the strategic goals of Brazilian foreign policy aimed at strengthening the country's position in the global system of international relations, diversifying partnerships, and promoting the "South-South" cooperation format. Historical, political, and social prerequisites for the intensification of contacts are analyzed, including an emphasis on the cultural and civilizational proximity of Brazil and Africa. The study focuses on areas of cooperation in agriculture, healthcare, and education, as well as the scale of humanitarian and technical assistance. Both the official rhetoric about equitable partnership and the practical manifestations of asymmetry in relationships are examined, allowing for the identification of Brazil's dual approach to achieving its foreign policy goals through international development tools. The research relies on the theoretical paradigm of neorealism, which posits that development-oriented assistance strengthens cooperation between countries and creates a basis for the involvement of non-state actors in this process. The article employs historical-political analysis and comparisons of statistical data, revealing the dynamics and characteristics of Brazilian-African interaction. The scientific novelty of the article lies in the comprehensive examination of Brazil's strategy in Africa as an element of "soft power," combining political diplomacy, economic interests, and technical cooperation projects. The work shows that, despite declarations of equality, the practical implementation of programs was accompanied by a pronounced asymmetry and dependency of African countries on Brazilian technologies and resources. At the same time, research demonstrates that Brazilian initiatives contributed to strengthening the social and institutional potential of partners, as well as enhancing Brazil's own international standing. During the economic crisis of the 2010s, the scale of the country's participation decreased; however, the groundwork laid helped to establish Brazil as an important actor in the global South. The conclusions drawn emphasize the significance of the experience of Brazilian-African cooperation for understanding contemporary formats of international interaction aimed at development.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(3):275-285
pages 275-285 views

The potential of social media as a means of preventing radicalism in the Muslim religious community

Sedykh N.S.

Abstract

The article discusses the potential of social networks as a means of preventing radicalism in the Muslim religious environment. In this context, the author addresses the characteristics of contemporary radical Islamist ideology and the practices of its dissemination through social networks. It illustrates the forms, methods, means, and technologies used for the propaganda of radical ideas online. Data is provided on the specific activities of extremist activists in the Russian cyberspace, as well as concrete cases that illustrate new threats and risks. In this regard, the prospects for involving Muslim religious figures in creating positive media content aimed at educational and preventive tasks are outlined. This content would be presented in an appealing and interactive format for young audiences, explaining categories of Islamic morality such as justice, respect, and good neighborliness, which are the value foundation of Muslim social behavior. The methodological basis of the research is a systemic approach, along with the principles of interdisciplinarity and polyparadigmaticity. The main research methods include analysis and synthesis, generalization, and descriptive methods as a means of collecting, describing, and structuring empirical data. Contemporary radical movements use not only violence to achieve destructive goals but also what is termed media jihad (media war). In particular, they call on their supporters to create propaganda products using digital technologies and to disseminate them through all available social networks in order to involve young people around the world in extremism and terrorism. Essentially, "media jihad" represents a radical Islamist method of applying "soft power." It serves as a means of propaganda that aims to persuade and engage young people in destructive activities. As analysis of the activities of extremist activists on the global web shows, they "infect" the youth audience with a destructive ideology that cultivates violence and a unique form of hedonism. The scientific novelty of the research lies in justifying the necessity of developing network measures and methods for the primary prevention of radicalism, aimed at creating "immunity" against destructive influences. In this regard, it also substantiates the need to engage Muslim religious figures in creating positive preventive media content that addresses informal educational objectives.
Conflictology / nota bene. 2025;(3):286-303
pages 286-303 views

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