Long-term demographic forecasting

V. L. Makarov; Макаров В. Л.; A. R. Bakhtizin; Бахтизин А. Р.; Luo Hua; Хуа Луо; Wu Jie; Цзе Ву; Wu Zili; Зили Ву; M. Yu. Sidorenko; Сидоренко М. Ю.

doi:10.31857/S0869587323010048

Long-term demographic forecasting

Authors: Makarov V.L.¹, Bakhtizin A.R.¹, Hua L.², Jie W.³, Zili W.⁴, Sidorenko M.Y.⁵
Affiliations:
1. Central Economics and Mathematics Institute (CEMI), Russian Academy of Sciences
2. Shanghai International Studies University (SISU)
3. Center for Economic and Social Integration and Forecasting, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)
4. Guangzhou Milestone Software Co., Ltd.
5. State Academic University for the Humanities (GAUGN)
Issue: Vol 93, No 1 (2023)
Pages: 21-35
Section: ИЗ РАБОЧЕЙ ТЕТРАДИ ИССЛЕДОВАТЕЛЯ
URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/0869-5873/article/view/140592
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31857/S0869587323010048
EDN: https://elibrary.ru/EMYUIN
ID: 140592

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Abstract

The results of the latest demographic forecasts from the world’s leading specialized centers (United Nations Population Division, the Wittgenstein Center for Demography and Global Human Capital, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) are considered, demonstrating a certain bias in favor of individual countries and their calculation methods. The second part of this article provides a description of a digital twin of the planet’s demographic system constructed by a Chinese−Russian team and implemented in China’s national supercomputer center. In addition, the results of some calculations carried out using this tool are described.

Keywords

demographic forecasts, agent-based models, computational experiments

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