Long-term demographic forecasting
- Autores: Makarov V.1, Bakhtizin A.1, Hua L.2, Jie W.3, Zili W.4, Sidorenko M.5
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Afiliações:
- Central Economics and Mathematics Institute (CEMI), Russian Academy of Sciences
- Shanghai International Studies University (SISU)
- Center for Economic and Social Integration and Forecasting, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)
- Guangzhou Milestone Software Co., Ltd.
- State Academic University for the Humanities (GAUGN)
- Edição: Volume 93, Nº 1 (2023)
- Páginas: 21-35
- Seção: ИЗ РАБОЧЕЙ ТЕТРАДИ ИССЛЕДОВАТЕЛЯ
- URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/0869-5873/article/view/140592
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.31857/S0869587323010048
- EDN: https://elibrary.ru/EMYUIN
- ID: 140592
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Resumo
The results of the latest demographic forecasts from the world’s leading specialized centers (United Nations Population Division, the Wittgenstein Center for Demography and Global Human Capital, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) are considered, demonstrating a certain bias in favor of individual countries and their calculation methods. The second part of this article provides a description of a digital twin of the planet’s demographic system constructed by a Chinese−Russian team and implemented in China’s national supercomputer center. In addition, the results of some calculations carried out using this tool are described.
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Sobre autores
V. Makarov
Central Economics and Mathematics Institute (CEMI), Russian Academy of Sciences
Email: vestnik.ran@yandex.ru
Moscow, Russia
A. Bakhtizin
Central Economics and Mathematics Institute (CEMI), Russian Academy of Sciences
Email: vestnik.ran@yandex.ru
Moscow, Russia
Luo Hua
Shanghai International Studies University (SISU)
Email: vestnik.ran@yandex.ru
Shanghai, China
Wu Jie
Center for Economic and Social Integration and Forecasting, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)
Email: vestnik.ran@yandex.ru
Guangzhou, China
Wu Zili
Guangzhou Milestone Software Co., Ltd.
Email: vestnik.ran@yandex.ru
Guangzhou, China
M. Sidorenko
State Academic University for the Humanities (GAUGN)
Autor responsável pela correspondência
Email: vestnik.ran@yandex.ru
Moscow, Russia
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