Vol 4, No 5 (2025)

the article examines the impact of news anomalies on cryptocurrency market volatility using entropy analysis of the information environment and the ARIMA model. The methodological approach combines the calculation of entropy indicators of the news flow and their comparison with ARIMA forecast errors, which allows for a quantitative assessment of the relationship between information shocks and abnormal price movements. It is shown that an increase in the entropy of the news background is a harbinger of instability and can serve as an indicator of increased risk. The results of testing on data on the dynamics of Bitcoin confirm the applicability of the proposed toolkit for diagnosing and forecasting market instability. The work contributes to the development of financial analysis methods by proposing the integration of the entropy approach into risk management systems. Prospects for further research include expanding the set of information background sources and optimising model parameters. The work was carried out within the framework of the project «Development of a methodology for the formation of an instrumental base for analysis and modeling of spatial socio-economic development of systems in the context of digitalization based on internal reserves» (FSEG- 2023-0008).

the article provides a comprehensive analysis of the state and main trends of trade and economic relations between Russia and Poland in the context of the political crisis. Based on the analysis of statistical data, legal acts, and expert assessments, the article assesses the dynamics of trade between Russia and Poland, identifies changes in the structure of exports and imports, and identifies the most vulnerable and promising sectors for cooperation. Special attention is paid to the impact of mutual sanctions and other political factors on economic relations between the countries. The results of the study show that the political crisis has had a significant negative impact on trade and economic relations between Russia and Poland, leading to a substantial decrease in trade volumes and a change in its structure. However, despite the existing restrictions, there is still potential for developing cooperation based on mutual benefit and national interests in several sectors.

this article identifies, systematizes, and analyzes methodological parallels between structural anthropology and economic theory. To establish and illustrate these relationships, the author considered it appropriate to examine the interaction of history and ethnology in the context of their applicability to specific times and places, and beyond. The concepts of evolutionism and diffusionism are then contrasted, with a special emphasis on evolutionary institutionalism. The importance of Levi-Strauss's structuralism is emphasized as the embodiment of a certain methodological balance, which appears relevant in the context of economic research. In addition, alternative options such as the synchronic and diachronic approaches in structural anthropology, and the metaphysical and dialectical methods in philosophy are cited as analogies to each other, which are also considered from the standpoint of applicability to economic theory.

this article presents a comparative analysis of modern approaches to forecasting the dynamics and volatility of cryptocurrency series. It considers classical statistical models (ARIMA, GARCH), seasonal forecasting methods (Prophet), and neural network algorithms (LSTM, GRU), as well as their hybrid architectures. Particular attention is paid to the applicability of models in conditions of limited samples and high information sensitivity of the cryptocurrency market. It is shown that ARIMA retains its significance as an interpretable benchmark for short-term analysis, GARCH remains a key tool for volatility assessment, while neural network and hybrid approaches demonstrate advantages with large data sets but are limited in terms of interpretability. The work contributes to the development of a methodology for forecasting abnormal price movements in decentralized markets, justifying the need to integrate statistical and information-theoretical methods. Prospects for further research are related to the use of entropy analysis and the development of hybrid models to improve the accuracy and stability of forecasts in conditions of high uncertainty. The work was carried out within the framework of the project «Development of a methodology for the formation of an instrumental base for analysis and modeling of spatial socio-economic development of systems in the context of digitalization based on internal reserves» (FSEG- 2023-0008).

the article discusses the impact of population aging on ensuring national economic security. The authors found that the regional asymmetry of the aging processes exacerbates the problem, creating territories with a critically high demographic burden along with relatively young regions. The authors of the article presented that such unevenness requires a differentiated approach to ensuring economic security at various levels of government. In order to identify the nature and strength of the relationship between demographic changes and economic indicators, a correlation and regression analysis of key parameters was carried out, which made it possible to quantify the impact of population aging on various aspects of Russia's economic security. Analyzing the relationship between the proportion of the population over 65 years of age and various economic indicators, the authors determined the significant impact of population aging on the economic security of the country. The authors found that with an increase in the proportion of the elderly population, there is a certain decrease in the growth rate of real GDP and labor productivity, which may indicate a slowdown in economic activity and a reduction in labor resources available to the economy. In addition, the article presents an increasing trend in the median age of the population, which indicates an older workforce that may be less mobile and productive, which affects the overall level of economic activity and competitiveness of the country in the global market.

the article is devoted to the problem of clarifying the concept of supervision system of the Bank of Russia over subjects of the collective investment market. The relevance of the research of scientific issues is due to the fact that Russian legislation sets out the goals, principles and procedures for exercising supervisory powers, however, the very concept of supervisory system activities of the Bank of Russia in relation to subjects of the collective investment market is still legally uncertain. Thus, the purpose of this study is to fill the identified gap. The scientific novelty is the proposal of the author's definition of the supervision system of the Bank of Russia over the subjects of the collective investment market as a complex of interrelated and interdependent institutional and functional elements that monitor, control and adjust the behavior of participants in the collective investment market in order to ensure the stability of the financial sector, protect the legitimate rights and interests of investors, as well as prevent risks threatening sustainability this segment of the financial market. The formulated definition complements the existing theory of financial supervision system, clarifying its structure, goals and methods in relation to the collective investment market, where fiduciary relations, distributed responsibility and institutional intermediation are of crucial importance. The practical significance of the research results lies in the possibility of applying the proposed definition in the development and improvement of the supervisory procedures of the Bank of Russia, as well as in the formation of criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of supervised organizations.

the article proposes to consider the risk from the point of view of the criterion for assessing the effectiveness of the management decision. It is assumed that the criterion for evaluating a management decision is directly related to a certain indicator, and the effectiveness of a management decision is determined by the best value of the indicator. The choice of criterion made by the manager is subjective, and the validity and risk of a management decision depends entirely on the choice of criterion. In turn, the values of the criterion are determined at a certain interval in which the risk distribution function is set. Thus, the values of the criterion are associated with the risk values, which makes it possible to increase the validity of the management decision.

the purpose of the article is to identify the main socio-adaptive practices of Russians in the context of COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 changes. In this regard, the article presents and analyzes the results of current socio-economic research on the key risks faced by Russian society during the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors highlight the culturally and historically determined adaptive mechanisms specific of the Russian society (by the example of the behavioral patterns of Russians), emphasizing the popularity of healthy lifestyle trends and their latent socio-economic nature. Thus, the article examines the fashion for a healthy lifestyle through the prism of the Russian society's demand for safety as a result of the psychological impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on human consciousness. The authors of the article consider the adaptive practices of Russians as attempts by society’s members to predict and overcome possible socio-economic risks in the future, paying special attention to their health through preventive and wellness medicine, thereby stimulating the expansion of the medical services market.