Vol 4, No 2 (2025)
Articles
Tools for expanding the export potential of the food industry under sanctions
Abstract
the necessity of adapting Russia’s agro-industrial complex to the transformed conditions of international trade, driven by the imposition of sanctions, defines the relevance of this study. In the current environment, domestic food producers face multiple challenges, including disruptions in logistics chains, restricted access to international financial instruments, and the need to explore alternative markets. Under these circumstances, the development of effective government support mechanisms and export growth strategies becomes a key factor in ensuring the industry's sustainable expansion. This paper analyzes the instruments aimed at enhancing the export potential of Russia’s food industry under sanctions. Additionally, adaptation strategies within the agro-industrial complex are considered, focusing on the modernization of logistics infrastructure, diversification of export destinations, and the transition to settlements in national currencies. The methodological framework of the study includes an analysis of legal and regulatory frameworks, export volume forecasting using linear regression, and a comparative assessment of government support measures. The research findings indicate that expanding export opportunities requires a comprehensive approach, encompassing investment incentives for production, the development of certification infrastructure, and the promotion of public-private partnerships. Forecast estimates highlight the prospects for increasing exports of grain, meat, and dairy products under various economic scenarios. The study concludes that a systematic approach to agro-industrial export development is essential, taking into account both macroeconomic conditions and the necessity for enterprises to remain flexible and adaptive in the evolving landscape of global trade.
Economic Bulletin. 2025;4(2):4-16
4-16
Application of a dynamic stochastic market model to analyze the effect of introducing product taxes and licenses
Abstract
the purpose of the study is to develop a dynamic stochastic market model and apply it to identify the effects of implementing product taxes and licenses. Methods: the study utilizes mathematical methods for analyzing markets with imperfect competition. Findings: the research presents a computationally simple dynamic model of an industry with heterogeneous firms, enabling the exploration of tax and license effects. Corresponding effects were investigated and described in detail, with computational simulations conducted to confirm analytically derived conclusions. Conclusions: The analysis of the impact of product taxes and licenses on market equilibrium was conducted. Licenses reduce the number of firms and increase costs, decreasing average firm efficiency. Product taxes, while reducing the number of firms, increase their average efficiency despite unchanged prices. The results indicate that market structure is primarily determined by entry barriers for new participants.
Economic Bulletin. 2025;4(2):17-31
17-31
Key patterns of implementation of innovative processes in the Russian instrument industry
Abstract
the purpose of the study is to analyze the influence of key factors determining the dynamics of innovation in the Russian instrument industry, based on an assessment of the strength and direction of their impact. Methods: statistical methods and methods of time series analysis, comparison and generalization methods are used as methods in the presented study. Findings: the study describes the main trends and limitations of the industry development in the Russian Federation at the present stage, highlights the need for innovative transformations in it. A statistical analysis of changes in the main indicators of the implementation of innovative processes of instrument-making enterprises of the Russian Federation is presented. An assessment of their changes in the Central Federal District as a whole and in the context of individual subjects of the federal District is also given. Quantitative analysis is based on temporal and spatial changes in the share of innovative goods, works, and services, as well as key factors such as costs and innovation activity. Conclusions: the revealed patterns in the development of innovations in this group of enterprises, their specific features and trends of change can be used as the basis for programs and measures for import substitution of the industry as additional levers of influence and growth of their effectiveness.
Economic Bulletin. 2025;4(2):32-37
32-37
Methodological aspects of evaluating the effectiveness of innovative projects in oil refining
Abstract
the purpose of the article is to develop an updated model for evaluating the effectiveness of innovative projects in oil refining based on available methods. In modern conditions of industrial development, methods of evaluating the effectiveness of decision-making related to innovative projects in oil refining are of particular importance. The rapid development of technology is significantly changing the industry, necessitating the introduction of technological innovations in production. This is due to the fact that industry is a strategically important sector, forming a large part of GDP. The main part analyzes the dynamics of the development of the oil refining industry and the market in Russia. Methods: in the course of the work, the method of theoretical analysis of sources, the method of synthesis and description, the method of analysis and the method of generalization of the results were used. Findings: it is determined that in the modern conditions of economic development, the introduction of technological innovations in industry is an inevitable and necessary process, since digitalization implies the use of new tools and equipment to increase the efficiency and competitiveness of the industry. The result contains a description of the updated methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of technological innovations in oil refining. Conclusions: the conclusions emphasize the importance of digitalization of the industry and evaluation of the effectiveness of decisions made. The proposed assessment methodology is based on the close relationship between the costs of research and development in oil refining and the economic performance of specific companies.
Economic Bulletin. 2025;4(2):38-43
38-43
Formation of a hybrid tax system in the context of integration of digital and real assets
Abstract
this article examines the theoretical and practical aspects of the transition to a hybrid tax system that combines the regulation of traditional (real) assets and digital (virtual) assets. The author, acting as a tax consultant-scientist, analyzes the legal, economic and organizational prerequisites for such a transition, and reveals the main problems and prospects for the interaction of various forms of ownership and taxation in the context of the digital transformation of the economy. In the context of digitalization of the economy and the spread of blockchain technologies, the legal, economic and methodological prerequisites for the transition to such a system are analyzed. Particular attention is paid to international experience, the risks of double taxation. In addition, the issue is also devoted to the problems of harmonization of national tax laws, the search for an optimal balance between the interests of the state, business and citizens when introducing hybrid mechanisms of fiscal regulation. The scientific novelty of the presented work lies in the substantiation of a systemic integrative approach to taxation, in which digital and real assets act as complementary elements of the tax base. The practical significance of this work lies in the formation of recommendations for improving tax legislation and policies that promote fair taxation, stimulate innovation and ensure fiscal stability.
Economic Bulletin. 2025;4(2):44-52
44-52
Artifical intelligence and competition: prediction of consumer demand
Abstract
the purpose of the article is to test the hypothesis that artificial intelligence and machine learning methods allow firms to gain a competitive advantage by reducing uncertainty in predicting consumer demand. Methods: The article compares two approaches to demand estimation: an econometric approach based on a micro-founded and interpretable BLP model and a statistical approach based on machine learning methods. In particular, the classical model is compared with linear models with L1 and L2 regularization, random forests, gradient boosting, and a neural network. Findings: Comparison of models applied to the US car market showed a significant advantage of machine learning models relative to the BLP model. The prediction accuracy of such models outweighed the accuracy of the econometric model by more than ten times. Conclusions: The results show that the use of machine learning methods in the problem of predicting consumer demand can indeed radically increase the accuracy of prediction relative to standard models. However, in exchange for such accuracy, one has to sacrifice the economic interpretation of the model parameters.
Economic Bulletin. 2025;4(2):53-58
53-58
Prospects for the development of the market of green bonds in the form of digital financial assets
Abstract
currently, the study of the green bond market in the form of digital financial assets (DFA) is becoming especially relevant in the context of global environmental problems. According to experts, in order to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement and the transition to a low-carbon economy, it is necessary to attract financing in the amount of $ 100-150 trillion by 2050. Traditional financing mechanisms are not able to provide such a volume of investments, which necessitates the search for innovative financial instruments. The market of green bonds issued in the form of digital financial assets (DFA) is a promising area at the intersection of sustainable finance and digital technologies. This segment combines the environmental goals of green bonds with the technological advantages of blockchain and digital assets.
Economic Bulletin. 2025;4(2):59-65
59-65
The development prospects of community tourism in Dobukur hunting village in the context of Beijing-Mongolia cooperation
Abstract
community tourism has become a very popular phenomenon in recent years as it allows for many positive outcomes and also helps to address priority issues such as social exclusion, youth retention and preservation of artefacts and assets. The aim of the article is to explore the prospects of community tourism in Dobukur hunting village in the context of China-Mongolia co-operation. Objectives: 1) to briefly characterise the features of community tourism; 2) to highlight the features of Dobukur village as an object of tourism; 3) to substantiate the prospective directions of community tourism development in the village with the assistance of China and Mongolia. In the article with the application of methods of sociological field research, modern image technologies of art-anthropology the proposals concerning the development of the strategy of rural revival in the hunting village Dobukur are formulated. Special attention is paid to substantiating the ways of accelerated social modernisation of ethnic minority border villages, which will contribute to increasing their attractiveness for tourist flows, as well as generally contribute to the revival of active life in border areas. The recommendations and proposals formulated in the article can find their application in the activities of regional authorities, as well as business structures interested in the development of community tourism.
Economic Bulletin. 2025;4(2):66-70
66-70
Improving the development and technical support of information and analytical systems designed to assist in making managerial decisions in the field of marketing
Abstract
in a rapidly changing market and increasingly competitive environment, carefully thought-out marketing strategies are becoming critical to the success of any company. Reliable information and advanced analytical approaches are needed to make informed and effective decisions. With the development of information technology and the emergence of new ways of data analysis, the tools used to create and maintain information and analytical systems that play a central role in the marketing decision-making process are also evolving. Traditional marketing analysis methods based on intuition and limited data are gradually giving way to advanced analytical systems capable of processing huge amounts of information from various sources. These systems allow companies to identify hidden patterns, predict market trends, and evaluate the effectiveness of marketing campaigns with unprecedented accuracy.
Economic Bulletin. 2025;4(2):71-76
71-76
Issues of socio-economic adaptability of Russian society in a transitional economy
Abstract
the problem of adaptation of states, societies and individuals to the conditions of a dynamic environment becomes scientifically relevant in the situation of modern global social instability, the era of geopolitical, economic and socio-cultural changes. In the context of economic theory, research dealing with the problem of socio-economic survival of societies is becoming relevant again; particular attention is paid to the phenomenon of informal economic institutions, which is appearing in behavioral attitudes, socio-economic behavior and expectations of people. Of particular interest is an experience of the post-Soviet society of the 1990s, when the problem of the "informal economy" affected most of the population, exposing not only a number of fundamental social and political tensions of the late USSR period, but also laid the foundation for a new Russian socio – economical system. The problems of that time also showed the phenomenal socio-cultural potential of the Russian people, conditioned by harsh climatic, geopolitical and historical conditions of their life, which formed their resilience (also mental) to a broad group of social stressors and external changes, which have developed a high degree of their socio-economic adaptability.
Economic Bulletin. 2025;4(2):77-85
77-85
Sharia-compliant investments: where do islamic banks invest?
Abstract
the development of Islamic financial institutions based on the principles of Sharia is gaining increasing importance in the global economy. Islamic finance, which avoids interest transactions and investments in prohibited activities, demonstrates steady growth, attracting the attention of both traditional investors and the younger generation seeking ethical and halal financing. Strategic investments of Islamic banks, especially in technological and digital solutions, help optimize operating costs and expand the client base, emphasizing the relevance of studying their investment activities. The main research problem is to determine the specifics of investment strategies of Islamic banks, their compliance with Sharia norms and identify key areas for capital placement in the context of strict religious restrictions. The purpose of the article is to analyze the investment activities of the largest Islamic banks, identify the main instruments and areas of their investments, taking into account the principles of Islamic finance. Methods. The paper uses methods of theoretical analysis of the principles of Islamic finance, as well as an analysis of the data presented in tables illustrating the types of Sharia-compliant investment instruments (Murabaha, Ijara, Musharaka, Mudaraba, Sukuk) and the main investment areas of leading Islamic banks, taking into account their geographical presence and asset volumes. Results. It was revealed that Islamic banks actively use Sharia-compliant contracts to finance real economic assets and projects. The main investment areas of the largest banks are retail and corporate banking, SME lending, the sukuk market, real estate investments, asset management, as well as specialized sectors such as healthcare, logistics and energy. A trend towards digitalization of services and geographic expansion is noted. The total assets of the 100 largest Islamic banks reached USD 1.57 trillion, which indicates the scale of the sector. Conclusions. Islamic banks invest primarily through Shariah-compliant instruments, channeling capital into the real economy. Their investment decisions are guided by strict compliance with Shariah principles, risk management, corporate governance and the pursuit of socio-economic goals (Maqasid al-Shari’ah). Portfolio diversification across assets, sectors and regions, along with the active development of digital technologies, are key elements of their strategy in the global financial environment.
Economic Bulletin. 2025;4(2):86-93
86-93
Pickup points as investment assets: financial analysis of Wildberries auction listings
Abstract
the objective of this study is to develop an approach for assessing the investment attractiveness of Wildberries pickup points (PVPs) offered for sale through the marketplace’s auction platform, using a limited set of available data. Methods: The study employs a simplified income-based financial model, including calculations of net profit, present value (PV) using the Gordon growth model, net present value (NPV), and profitability index (PI). The methodology is applied to a sample of 52 PVP auction listings located in Moscow. Findings: The results reveal significant deviations of PI values from theoretically expected levels (ranging from -11.64 to 26.14), indicating potential market inefficiencies such as information asymmetry, low liquidity, and inconsistent pricing practices. A strong positive correlation between turnover and net profit is observed, reflecting the impact of business scale on profitability. The distribution of PI deviates from normality, as confirmed by the Shapiro – Wilk test. Conclusions: The proposed model can serve as an effective preliminary screening tool for investors, allowing the identification of clearly unprofitable assets and prioritization of due diligence efforts on the most promising listings. Its practical application lies in reducing transaction costs and enhancing the efficiency of investment decision-making in the emerging market of ready-to-operate small businesses.
Economic Bulletin. 2025;4(2):94-104
94-104
Multicriteria analysis models in assessing socio-economic development of small African states
Abstract
the study is devoted to the use of multicriteria models for measuring the socio-economic conditions of small African states. The relevance of a comprehensive measurement that takes into account economic, social, environmental and institutional indicators is substantiated given the high sensitivity of such economies to external shocks. The analysis device examines integral indices - HDI, multidimensional poverty index, vulnerability index MVI – and constructs comparative profiles for thirteen countries. The information basis is made up of statistical series from the World Bank, IMF, UNDP, AfricaDataHub and Pacific Islands News Association, supplemented by the monograph by D?meland and Gil Sander. The novelty is determined by the integration of the latest version of the MVI into the scalarization procedure, which made it possible to identify discrepancies between income levels and quality of life, and to clarify the priorities of national development policy. The methods of substantive analysis of literature, normalization of indicators, weighting of criteria and ranking by Pareto optimality are applied. The practical value is expressed by the proposed matrix of actions for government bodies and donor organizations aimed at reducing vulnerability and strengthening human potential. The results are suitable for planning budget programs, structural reforms and assessing the effectiveness of external support in vulnerable island economies.
Economic Bulletin. 2025;4(2):105-111
105-111
Improving the weighted average cost of capital methodology for emerging markets
Abstract
the article studies the dependence of the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of a Russian oil and gas corporation on the capital structure determined by the value of financial leverage. The object of the study is PJSC Tatneft, for which WACC calculations are carried out as of November 13, 2024. The analysis assesses the sensitivity of WACC to changes in the refinancing rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, as well as key macroeconomic factors, including the capital structure and solvency of the company.
Economic Bulletin. 2025;4(2):112-120
112-120
Analysis of customs revenue to the federal budget in the context of the development of the Russian oil industry
Abstract
in Russian conditions, customs duties are a key source of federal budget revenues. Oil revenues in complexly oriented global formations of friendly and unfriendly countries have received ambiguous dynamics, which requires research using various sources of information. The article analyzes the dynamics of revenues to the federal budget of the Russian Federation in the period 2022-2024, taking into account changes in the share of customs duties. Special attention is paid to revenues from mineral extraction tax and additional profit tax. It is determined that despite economic restrictions, the Russian oil industry continues to develop its export potential, building trade interactions with key partners, including China and India. Certain conclusions are made. At the same time, it is noted that the adopted state decisions to zero the export rate on oil and oil products are rightfully aimed at a targeted move away from oil and gas dependence and, as a result, at the development of national production.
Economic Bulletin. 2025;4(2):121-126
121-126
