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No 8 (2023)

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Articles

Debt ceiling problems: is the US facing a technical default?

Kirichenko E.V.

Abstract

On January 19, 2023 political contradictions between Republicans and Democrats on the issues of the national debt ceiling and the growing budget deficit have once again brought the United States to the brink of a technical default. The article examines how the Treasury tried to push back the date of such a default. Two types of national debt (public debt and intragovernmental debt) and their role in maintaining the debt ceiling are analyzed. The paradoxes of decision-making in the budget process regarding the debt ceiling are considered. When adopting the budget, legislators already estimate the amount of the budget deficit that will be added to the debt, threats of technical default have become a bargaining chip in disputes about budget policy. This is especially evident in the conditions of divided government. Republicans with the majority in the House of Representatives actively played a card of budget deficit. After months of bitter struggle between the administration and republicans in Congress, the latter approved a bill that shifted the limit on the national debt to January 1, 2025. On June 3, the president signed it. The debt ceiling problem has been postponed, but not solved. Lawmakers did not go for the abolition of the "debt ceiling", which some budget experts consider necessary. Particular attention in the article is paid to how Congress has been trying for decades to legislate the problem of the budget deficit and the debt ceiling and how effective these attempts have been. The American decision-making mechanism in the budgetary sphere is increasingly coming to a standstill. Trust in treasuries allows the US government to attract the savings of its citizens and the world's savings. Each time, the protracted confrontations over the debt ceiling can make investors begin to doubt whether American treasuries are such a reliable asset.
USA & Canada: economics, politics, culture. 2023;(8):7-16
pages 7-16 views

The U.S. labor market: trends and challenges

Bogaevskaya O.V.

Abstract

The U.S. labor market quickly overcame the effects of the pandemic and 2020 recession. The unemployment rate has returned to its low pre-crisis levels, and the number of vacancies is almost twice the number of the unemployed. The key feature of the U.S. labor market is labor shortage in almost all industries and among all categories of workers. The shock of the pandemic recession accelerated some imminent processes, which led to long-term structural changes. This includes a decrease in labor force participation rate, mainly as a result of large-scale excess retirements, and an increase in telework. The favorable situation in the labor market enables the Fed to conduct tight monetary policy.
USA & Canada: economics, politics, culture. 2023;(8):17-26
pages 17-26 views

Modernization of the US immigration system as an important condition for maintaining global technological leadership

Nikolskaya G.K.

Abstract

The article focuses upon the problem of a comprehensive reform of the US immigration system. The reform was supposed to increase the effectiveness of immigration policy, make it able to respond the needs of the economy. The author notes the extreme politicization of the problem of immigration. Acute inter-party contradictions made it impossible to carry out a comprehensive immigration reform, the need for which was recognized at the beginning of this century. Many developed countries successfully compete with the United States, attracting thousands of foreign specialists to their countries.
USA & Canada: economics, politics, culture. 2023;(8):27-35
pages 27-35 views

Features of economic sanctions as a tool to protect the strategic interests of the United States

Soldatenkova O.I.

Abstract

The widespread use of economic sanctions as an instrument of foreign policy has caused a growing interest in assessing the effectiveness of their use to achieve the strategic goals of the initiator state. The article summarizes the main characteristics of economic sanctions as an instrument of foreign policy. The features of modern U.S. sanctions policy are presented. Special attention is paid to the conduct of anti-Russian sanctions by the coalition of countries led by the United States in 2022 and the assessment of the achievement of the stated goals.
USA & Canada: economics, politics, culture. 2023;(8):36-45
pages 36-45 views

Will the US lead the energy transition? decarbonization policy of American oil companies

Poussenkova N.N., Svetenko M.A.

Abstract

The article assesses the chances of the US that recently recovered its former status of a major energy power to become the leader of the energy transition from fossil fuels to the renewable sources of energy. The authors study the key drivers of the oil and gas sector decarbonization within the framework of the fourth energy transition, such as government policy, greening of financial institutions, etc. The article analyzes decarbonization strategies and goals of the main players in the American and European oil and gas markets. The key objectives of the decarbonization process in the US are determined proceeding from the assumption that the country makes a bet on the long-term future of the global oil and gas sector and simultaneously intends to achieve net zero goals by 2050. The authors study methods (such as carbon capture, utilization and storage, direct air capture, broader use of hydrogen, reduction of gas flaring, etc.) and compare results of decarbonization carried out by the US (ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Occidental Petroleum) and European (Shell, Total, BP, Equinor) majors, as well as two key oil and gas companies in the Middle East: Saudi Aramco and ADNOC. The conclusion is made that currently the US oil and gas companies lag behind their European competitors in the energy transition sphere, and at the same time the main Middle Eastern players that employ similar approaches to reducing their carbon footprint are gradually catching up with them.
USA & Canada: economics, politics, culture. 2023;(8):46-58
pages 46-58 views

North american integration as a resource for strengthening U.S. leadership

Komkova E.G.

Abstract

He NAFTA Agreement, which served as a personification of North American economic integration for a quarter of a century, was created by the United States in the early 1990s as a response to the successes of the European Community. The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which replaced NAFTA under the Trump administration, is aimed at solving another task - to counter China's economic expansion in North America and, more broadly, in the Western Hemisphere.
USA & Canada: economics, politics, culture. 2023;(8):59-68
pages 59-68 views

U.S. - Chinese foreign economic relations at the stage of "partial decoupling"

Dmitriev S.S.

Abstract

The Biden administration is using trade policy tools to reformat international supply chains in favor of national producers. The adjustment of the U.S. foreign economic policy towards China is carried out in conjunction with national security issues. The goals pursued are to weaken China economically. The future of U.S. - China trade relations are seen as moving along the trajectory of “partial decoupling”. The complete disintegration is not in Washington's interests as economies of the two countries remain interdependent and complementary, and will only push China to strive for self-development.
USA & Canada: economics, politics, culture. 2023;(8):69-79
pages 69-79 views

The new tendencies in the development of international relations in the Аsia-Pacific region

Panov A.N.

Abstract

The article analyses the new tendencies in the development of international relations in the Asia-Pacific region, caused in first place with the change in the strategy of the U.S., aimed to contain China using the course of creation «the ring of its encirclement», which consists of American allies, partners, «sympathetic countries». This strategy arouses Chinese response, which methodically strengthening its regional influence. In the region there is a process of «the delimit of forces», growing military activity, formation of the new alliances, quasi-blocks, groups of countries,
USA & Canada: economics, politics, culture. 2023;(8):80-98
pages 80-98 views

The "USA-India-China" triangle: current state and prospects

Uyanaev S.V.

Abstract

Recent years the virtual triangle "USA-India-China" attracts an increased attention of many political experts. The article considers three bilateral lines the triangle, analyzes their intersecting influence on each other. The author pays attention to the Chinese factor in the dialogue between the United States and India, emphasizes the role of Washington in the complex relations between New Delhi and Beijing, notes the influence of India on the interaction between the United States and China. The conclusions about the significance of the situation in the triangle for the interests of Russia are also drawn.
USA & Canada: economics, politics, culture. 2023;(8):99-111
pages 99-111 views

Southeast Asia in the context of the rivalry between the USA and China

Klimenko A.F.

Abstract

The article examines the specifics of the situation in Southeast Asia (Southeast Asia) from the point of view of military security issues and in connection with the situation in the Indo-Pacific region (ITR). The author proceeds from the fact that a serious destabilizing factor in the region remains the presence of intraregional contradictions - political, territorial and ethno-confessional, which are used by extra-regional actors under the auspices of the United States. Having identified China and Russia as the main rivals, Washington improved its Indo-Pacific strategy, activated the activities of existing ones and began to form new military-political alliances, on the basis of which it is envisaged to create an Asia-Pacific branch of NATO to contain them. The author believes that Washington's policy in Southeast Asia is opposed by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which proceeds from its central role in the evolution of the regional security architecture. In the context of the escalating rivalry between the United States and China, ASEAN sees a way to overcome the complex of regional contradictions in creating a security system based on mechanisms associated with ASEAN. In the ASEAN concept, the ITR appears as a region of dialogue and cooperation, not competition, open to China and other interested states to participate in the project. The author comes to the conclusion that such a statement of the question is justified both from the point of view of the strategic interests of the Southeast Asian countries themselves, and in general of the entire ITR. Analyzing the strategy adopted by Washington, the author believes that it becomes a long-term factor of strategic planning in the Pentagon. Its main goal will be to forcefully counter China's policy and put pressure on Russia and ASEAN, which seek to resist the dominance of the United States in the IT. In his opinion, in the current conditions of the situation, it is necessary to further strengthen the comprehensive strategic partnership between Russia and China and deepen cooperation with ASEAN on the basis of common interests in order to ensure regional security and stability.
USA & Canada: economics, politics, culture. 2023;(8):112-124
pages 112-124 views

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