China's Discourse on Minilateralism and Quasi-Alliances in the Context of U.S.-China Competition

A key feature of the U.S. strategy to contain China is the use of small-group alliances involving three to four countries, aimed at China's economic and technological isolation and military encirclement. While U.S.-led minilateral formats – such as the Quad, AUKUS, and various trilateral partnerships – have been widely studied in both Western and Russian scholarship, far less attention has been paid to how Chinese experts understand minilateralism and its role in U.S.-China rivalry. This article fills that gap. Through content analysis of Chinese academic publications, it explores the context and connotations of the term “minilateralism” in Chinese discourse. It examines how Chinese scholars assess the motivations behind U.S.-led minilateral groupings and trace the evolution of Washington’s minilateral strategy. The article also presents Chinese perspectives on the prospects of this strategy during Donald Trump’s second term and possible Chinese responses. Finally, it raises the question of whether China is developing a minilateral strategy of its own. The analysis concludes that, in Chinese expert opinion, U.S. minilateralism is viewed both as a challenge to China’s foreign policy and as a sign of the decline of the U.S.-centered world order.

minilateralism, quasi-alliances, US-China rivalry, China’s foreign policy, multilateralism, Trump 2.0