The problem of measuring the protest potential and forecasting the splash of mass protests in contemporary conditions

the article examines the problems of predicting mass protests in modern conditions. From the author's point of view, the researchers rightly raise the issues of the problematic forecasting of outbursts of social protest based on measurements of the level of social tension by the methods of sociological surveys: not a single measurement and analysis of the level of social tension has yet given the opportunity to speak with confidence about the upcoming outburst of protest moods in open forms, the intensity of protest forms, especially – the emergence of radical mass forms of social protest. This is due to the fact that, firstly, the factors that determine social tension in different regions of the Russian Federation differ greatly. Secondly, these factors and their weight can change and change over time, moreover, these time intervals can be quite short, which makes it almost impossible to predict medium and long-term, as well as forecasting for the territory of the entire Russian Federation. Thirdly, social tension may not turn into social conflict, and even more so into open forms of protest. Fourth, researchers have long noticed that social tension in modern conditions can arise and transform into open forms of social protest under the influence of a certain manipulative influence. Fifth, this manipulative influence in modern conditions actively occurs through the media, especially new media, which can lead to an explosive outburst of protest actions without a serious level of social tension. In this regard, the available forecast toolkit should be supplemented with an analysis related to: 1) monitoring the media to identify socially significant topics that can sharply increase the mass of protest; 2) monitoring social networks for the growth of protest activity; 3) monitoring the activities of public organizations that accumulate protest moods and are aimed at managing protest moods, etc.

social protest, political protest in Russia, social conflict, media protest, protest communications, protest forecasting