No 1 (67) (2025): NO1 (67) (2025)
Articles
Development of Strategic Tools for Managing the Financial Policy of a Modern City
Abstract
The basic idea represented is the imperative of adopting a systems-based approach to the management of all components of the mechanism for attracting, employing, and allocating resources at the sub-national (state and municipal) levels. The necessity exists of integrating strategic management methodologies within the operations of public administration entities at both the state and municipal levels, in order to ensure systemic coherence among all contributing factors, including financial policy, which are crucial for attaining predetermined objectives. The central hypothesis posits that employing the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) framework, a well-established strategic management tool developed by Kaplan and Norton, will facilitate a systems-oriented approach across horizontal, vertical, and temporal dimensions. Further, the comparative analysis of existing literature is executed examining the adaptations of the BSC to the specific context of municipal governance institutions. An original BSC model is proposed for the management of municipalities. While sharing a general structural framework with the canonical Kaplan and Norton BSC model, the proposed model differentiates itself in terms of both the number of levels and the composition of those levels. Specifically, the fundamental level of objective setting, which dictates the structuring of all subsequent levels, is defined as a comprehensive set of "quality of life" goals. Future research directions for this study are outlined.
MMGU Herald. 2025;(1 (67)):2-9
2-9
Communication as a Monetary Policy Instrument: A Regional Perspective
Abstract
On March 4, 2025, R. Kh. Mardanov, Member of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia and Head of the Main Branch of the Bank of Russia for the Central Federal District, delivered a lecture at the Moscow Metropolitan Yury Luzhkov University on the topic of "How the Modern Economy Works and Why Inflation Management is Important." The presentation generated considerable interest among students, who posed numerous questions to the speaker. One question focused on the specific monetary policy instruments employed by the Bank of Russia, beyond the key interest rate, to influence inflation. This article provides a detailed analysis of communication as a crucial instrument of the Bank of Russia's monetary policy, aimed at reducing inflationary expectations among economic actors and anchoring them at a consistently low level. The article elaborates on practical approaches in the Bank of Russia's communication strategies regarding monetary policy for various audiences, including businesses, the general population, and the academic community, particularly at the regional level. The analysis indicates that the Bank of Russia must continue to develop its communication with the public on monetary policy issues, paying particular attention to engaging with the academic community.
MMGU Herald. 2025;(1 (67)):10-18
10-18
Probabilistic Models in the Dynamics of Urban Projects Financing
Abstract
This article explores the application of probabilistic models to analyze the expenditure dynamics of urban project financing. We employ Doob's decomposition for discrete submartingales as a mathematical framework. A general approach to modeling expenditure growth is described, based on representing the financing dynamics as a stochastic process consisting of a martingale and a compensator. Within the proposed model, the compensator reflects the planned expenditure growth, while the martingale represents random deviations from the plan. To validate the model's applicability, we analyzed project financing data from Moscow. The study identified trend components and random residuals, which were then tested for the martingale property using the Ljung-Box test. The analysis indicates a lack of statistically significant autocorrelation, supporting their interpretation as a martingale in Doob's decomposition. The findings suggest that the proposed method can be used for forecasting and analyzing the sustainability of budgetary financing, as well as for assessing the impact of random factors on the implementation of urban projects.
MMGU Herald. 2025;(1 (67)):19-25
19-25
Russian Financial Policy: Potential Paths for Development
Abstract
The article examines key aspects of state financial policy impacting the stability of financial markets and the potential for crises. It analyzes contradictions in economic policy that contribute to crisis potential, as well as the influence of sanctions on the Russian economy. Particular attention is paid to issues of financial sovereignty, the dependence of the Russian financial system on reserve currencies, and the role of interest rate policy in maintaining the ruble exchange rate. The structure of the Russian stock market and the degree of capital concentration are investigated, revealing increased risks of financial fragility due to the monopolization of resources in certain sectors. The impact of high interest rates on the accessibility of credit for small and medium-sized businesses is assessed, highlighting problems associated with limited competition. Mechanisms for the redistribution of financial flows through state financing institutions are analyzed, as well as the investment structure of non-state pension funds, mutual funds, and insurance companies. The conclusion emphasizes the need to increase competition in the Russian economy to achieve financial sovereignty and the effective functioning of monetary policy. Measures are proposed to diversify financial instruments, reduce capital concentration, and stimulate investment to ensure sustainable economic growth under sanctions pressure.
MMGU Herald. 2025;(1 (67)):26-31
26-31
The News Tone as a Leading Indicator of Consumer Sentiment
Abstract
The article presents an approach to the use of text analysis in order to form quantitative leading indicators based on qualitative data. In the theoretical part of the article, the author provides an overview of leading papers by foreign researchers, including those from central banks of developed countries, devoted to the assessment and use of data on the tone of news publications as an indicator of economic activity. Various approaches to extracting the tone of texts and converting its qualitative assessments into quantitative indicators are covered. The author's approach to evaluating the news tone using machine learning methods is explained. In the empirical part of the article, the author uses the example of the consumer sector to test the hypothesis about the consistency of fluctuations in the emotional tone of news publications with fluctuations in key indicators of the state of the economy of Russia. A news indicator based on publications in online media devoted to the retail and services sector is generated. As a result of the study, the consistency of its dynamics with individual indicators of consumer sentiment, calculated on the basis of surveys conducted by "inFOM" LLC, is confirmed. The conclusions presented in the works of foreign researchers regarding the consistency of the dynamics of consumer sentiment, measured on the basis of sociological surveys, and synthetic indicators reflecting the emotional tone of the news background are validated.
MMGU Herald. 2025;(1 (67)):32-37
32-37
Modeling the Interaction of Fiscal and Monetary Policy in the Current Environment
Abstract
In the paper theoretical analysis of the interplay between fiscal and monetary policies are presented. The paper explores concepts such as the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, fiscal dominance, financial repression, and Ricardian equivalence. The evolution of approaches to modeling the interaction of fiscal and monetary policies is reviewed, highlighting models based on active and passive policy regimes, game-theoretic frameworks, differential equation systems, and Markov-switching models. The analysis examines the foundational rules governing the conduct of monetary and fiscal policy, and the transmission mechanism of fiscal impulses through the fiscal multiplier to inflation, as well as via key interest rate decisions. A semi-structural quarterly forecasting model is adopted to simulate the transmission of fiscal stimulus, with the responses of key indicators to changes in selected model parameters being modeled. Empirical evidence suggests that Russia is currently experiencing a combination of active fiscal and active monetary policies. This configuration is associated with elevated inflation, potentially exhibiting instability. The Bank of Russia is implementing a policy consistent with a Taylor rule. Inflation growth has stabilized above the target level, necessitating the continuation of active monetary policy until a sustained downward trend in inflation is established and the inflation target is achieved.
MMGU Herald. 2025;(1 (67)):38-45
38-45