Geopolitical risks and the resilience of transport corridors in Eurasia: the impact of sanctions and conflicts

The object of the research is the Eurasian transport routes. The subject of the research is the influence of geopolitical risks and conflicts on the stability of transport corridors in Eurasia in the context of contemporary political challenges. The author explores in detail the impact of anti-Russian sanctions on the functioning of the Northern Eurasian corridor, as well as the development of the multilateral "North-South" transport corridor initiated by Russia. It analyzes how the sanctions have changed the dynamics of transit flows and contributed to a rethinking of the logistics strategies of the participating countries. Special attention is given to the study of China's involvement in shaping alternative routes through Central Asia and the Caspian region, including the TMTM (Trans-Caspian International Transport Route) project and the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway. The research examines the attempts of Central Asian countries to adapt to new geopolitical realities and their role in ensuring the stability of transport corridors. A comprehensive approach was applied in the research methodology, including qualitative and quantitative comparative analysis, using scientific literature on the subject and statistical data. The novelty of the research lies in complementing the existing literature, which allowed for the gathering of information on the research topic, although it did not fully address the set theme. As a result of the study, it was found that the risks caused by conflicts and sanctions have significantly influenced the restructuring of traditional transport routes in Eurasia. Countries such as Russia and China have been forced to seek alternatives to established transport flows. Central Asian countries, in turn, have gained opportunities to enhance cooperation in developing transport infrastructure on their territory. However, the successful integration of alternative routes, such as TMTM and the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, into the existing infrastructure will require significant efforts from the participating countries. The research indicates that China is diversifying its transport routes, aiming to ensure several alternatives for transportation in case of emerging conflicts and unstable economic situations. Under sanctions, China retains the ability to transit both through Russia and via other routes.

transport corridors, Eurasia, China, Russia, BRI, Central Asia, INSTC, Northern Corridor, Southern Corridor, TITR