Possible negative scenarios for the development of the Donbass agglomeration

The article examines the key development challenges of the Donbas polycentric agglomeration. It is shown that the greatest danger lies in the gradual loss of this agglomeration‘s polycentric character. A trend toward a gradual separation of the upper tier of Donbass cities from all other cities — small, medium, and large — is identified. This is particularly true for Donetsk, the central city of the agglomeration. The extrapolation analysis allows us to predict the timing and dynamics of this process. This process may result in the spatial fragmentation of the agglomeration into several monocentric and polycentric agglomerations. Two of the most likely spatial scenarios for such disintegration are presented. The necessary requirements for a future comprehensive model for optimizing the development of the Donbass polycentric agglomeration are formulated.

settlement theory, settlement framework, urban agglomerations, polycentric urban agglomeration, Donbass agglomeration, fragmentation of a polycentric agglomeration