Vestnik Instituta ekonomiki RAN

The dynamics of industrial production in the period 2022-2025 was undulating. This led to drastic changes in the conditions of the Russian economy’s development, a change in its priorities, and an expansion of measures and tools to stimulate economic activity. There have been noticeable changes in the structure of the industry. In terms of growth rates, the manufacturing industry has come to the fore since 2023, and a stable group of leading industries has emerged. At the same time, a structural imbalance appeared and began to grow, when the increase in output in certain manufacturing industries is many times greater than in most others. The potential for increasing the growth rate of industrial production by the end of 2024 has been almost exhausted. At the same time, the factors limiting growth, on the contrary, remain, and, moreover, their strengthening cannot be excluded. In the context of a reduction in the resource base of economic development, the most likely scenario for the medium term is the transition of Russian industry to growth rates significantly below the levels of 2023-2024.

This article focuses on specific institutional challenges posed by the announced long-term state program for the preservation of cultural heritage until 2045 in Russia. It seeks to address three key questions: 1) what are the nominal and actual goals of the long-term state program for the preservation of cultural heritage; 2) what risks might have the long-term state program for the preservation of cultural heritage, operated by a state-owned commercial organization - a financial development institution in the housing sector - for the sphere of heritage preservation, as well as for society as a whole; 3) what are the primary financial mechanisms for implementing the long-term state program for the preservation of cultural heritage, and how acceptable are they in the current economic climate? Answering these questions will help determine the key vectors of state policy for development of the long-term program for the preservation of cultural heritage and its subsequent implementation.

In recent decades, trends of global economic turbulence have intensified worldwide, expressed both in increased uncertainty, nonlinearity of economic processes, and the rise of economic and geopolitical conflicts. The authors of the study see one of the main factors intensifying global economic turbulence as the long-standing contradiction between the potential growth in global production, the need for this growth to stimulate positive dynamics in the global economy, and the limited availability of global sales markets. In the study, the authors analyze a wide range of phenomena, problems and contradictions associated with the limited availability of global markets, which are factors in global turbulence. By examining the problem of limited markets and the contradictions generated by this problem, such as the confrontation between national and supranational development institutions, the clash between national interests and the interests of transnational corporations and others, the authors form their own vision of possible scenarios for changes in the world order and the global economy.

The paper describes, using the example of the US “America First” policy, a global trend of the 2020s - the revival of economic nationalism (EN). We demonstrate how security imperatives are becoming central to economic strategies, with the weaponization of countries’ economic interdependencies emerging as a distinctive policy instrument. We examine the contemporary model of EN, identifying its key features and instruments, with particular emphasis on technological nationalism as its core component. This analytical framework helps us to reveal the contradictory nature of Trumponomics (the President Trump’s course since 2025), the trap of irreconcilable technological rivalry between the US and China, and the risks of Trump’s ‘bilateral deals” for the global economy. We find that nations’ transition under the EN doctrine from liberal principles of economic openness and free trade to protectionist and self-sufficiency ideologies entails the accumulation of economic inefficiencies. This trend can ultimately undermine countries’ ability to achieve those very goals of sustainable and secure development for which they have made this policy shift.

This article is devoted to researching the current applications of artificial intelligence in the financial sector. The study examines the basic concepts and elements of artificial intelligence technology, identifies the main areas of its application in the financial sector, and reveals new opportunities and risks associated with the introduction of artificial intelligence. The study found that the introduction of artificial intelligence allows for the automation of business processes, the optimization of resource and time use, the execution of routine processes, and the solution of complex tasks through big data analysis and pattern recognition. The main areas of application of artificial intelligence in the financial sector are: payments, financial intermediation, insurance, and asset management. In these areas, the use of artificial intelligence improves the efficiency of financial services by reducing the costs of internal transaction processing, regulatory compliance, fraud detection, and customer service. At the same time, the use of AI generates new sources of cyber risks and exacerbates problems of bias and discrimination in financial decision-making, which contributes to an increase in legal and operational risks.

The paper estimates the impact and threshold values of financial system indicators on the economic growth rates in 34 countries. Bisecting K-Means allows for making reasonable assumptions about their optimal combinations and levels. The cluster analysis identified seven latent groups, each differing in their financial system indicators. Calculating the weighted average growth rate for each group allowed for a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between financial factors and economic growth. An analysis of stock market turnover revealed that its growth is associated with accelerated economic growth, although the direction of this influence remains to be determined. The author also managed to roughly determine the lower limit of the turnover indicator (~30%), below which there is no positive impact on the economy. An analysis of the relative size of domestic loans to the private sector found arguments in favor of the existence of an optimal range of bank loans (75-125% of GDP) and thus a threshold, which is consistent with the findings of other authors. The analysis also suggested the existence of a lower limit on loan volume at 25%. The results of the study can be used in developing and substantiating target indicators for national economic policy.