Modern aspects of the demographic situation in the Belgorod region

BACKGROUND: The basic feature of the demographic situation in the Belgorod Oblast, as well as in the Russian Federation, is the continuing depopulation and reduction of the working age population. The results of the analysis of the demographic situation can be used as an information base for practical solutions to the prevention of morbidity, treatment and rehabilitation of patients in order to reduce premature mortality.

AIM: To analyze and assess the trends of the demographic situation in the Belgorod region in the period from 2010 to 2022.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: An observational retrospective continuous study of the demographic situation in the Belgorod region for 13 years (2010–2022) was carried out. Research methods: analytical, analytical-graphical, statistical, including descriptive statistics and time series analysis. Quantitative data were analyzed using absolute values, percentages, intensive indicators. Statistical significance of the studied indicators in dynamics, was assessed using F-criterion for the coefficients of determination (Student’s t-criterion for correlation coefficients with time variable) of linear trends of the corresponding time series.

RESULTS: In Belgorod region over the 12-year (2010–2022) period, the total population increased slightly by 0.4%; the observed total population growth was ensured until 2017 only by migration growth, and since 2018 it stopped compensating for the natural population decline (excess of the number of deaths over the number of births). In terms of the structure of the population, there was a significant increase in the proportion of the population above working age (growth rate +11.5%), while the proportion of the population of working age decreased (growth rate -7.8%). The demographic load per 1000 people of working age increased from 240 to 296 people for people younger than working age and from 382 to 461 people for people of retirement age. During the studied period negative dynamics of mortality rates from all causes in persons of working age, and in persons older than working age from diseases of digestive and respiratory organs was revealed.

CONCLUSION: In the period from 2010 to 2022, there are negative demographic trends characterised by depopulation due to a decline in birth rate, increased mortality and ageing of the population.