Predictive model of COVID-19 outcomes in patients with advanced HIV infection

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: No studies have examined the course and outcomes of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in patients with advanced HIV infection, which prompted this analysis.

AIM: To identify predictors of the adverse outcomes of COVID-19 in patients with HIV at the stage of secondary diseases to develop a predictive model of outcomes. This will help simplify the decision-making on the management of patients with COVID-19 and HIV infection at advanced stages.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: This single-center study included 300 patients aged >18 years with HIV infection at advanced disease stage and moderate-to-severe COVID-19 requiring in-patient treatment.

RESULTS: The mortality rate was 27.3% (95% CI, 22.7%–32.4%). Factors reflecting respiratory failure, immunodeficiency, decreased levels of protein and albumin, and increased levels of urea became unfavorable. A predictive model of adverse outcomes of COVID-19 in patients with advanced HIV infection has been obtained.

CONCLUSIONS: The proposed predictive model can help a practical healthcare doctor make a quick, informed decision on hospitalization of a patient in the intensive care unit and active therapeutic actions.

About the authors

Anna E. Tsygankova

Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation (Sechenov University); Infectious Diseases Clinical Hospital No 2, Moscow

Author for correspondence.
Email: anna.tsygankova.inf@gmail.com
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3766-1868
SPIN-code: 6583-0476

MD

Russian Federation, Moscow; Moscow

Andrey N. Gerasimov

Central Research Institute of Epidemiology

Email: andr-gerasim@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4549-7172
SPIN-code: 4742-1459
Scopus Author ID: 141741

Dr. Sci. (Phys.-Math.), Associate Professor

Russian Federation, Moscow

Svetlana A. Potekaeva

Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation (Sechenov University); Infectious Diseases Clinical Hospital No 2, Moscow

Email: infection_mma@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4771-9616
SPIN-code: 6105-8492
Scopus Author ID: 493696

MD, Cand. Sci. (Med.)

Russian Federation, Moscow; Moscow

Svetlana V. Krasnova

Infectious Diseases Clinical Hospital No 2, Moscow

Email: ikb2@zdrav.mos.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8592-5624
SPIN-code: 3652-3811
Scopus Author ID: 1137169

MD, Cand. Sci.(Med.)

Russian Federation, Moscow

Natalia A. Tsvetkova

Infectious Diseases Clinical Hospital No 2, Moscow

Email: 3655192@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3323-3401
SPIN-code: 5322-6167

MD, Cand. Sci. (Med.)

Russian Federation, Moscow

Natalia V. Maloletneva

Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation (Sechenov University)

Email: natalya-maloletneva@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0430-731X
SPIN-code: 8267-9750

MD, Cand. Sci. (Med.), Associate Professor

Russian Federation, Moscow

Elena V. Volchkova

Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation (Sechenov University)

Email: antononina@rambler.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4581-4510
SPIN-code: 3342-4681

MD, Dr. Sci (Med.), Professor

Russian Federation, Moscow

Vladimir P. Chulanov

Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation (Sechenov University)

Email: vladimir.chulanov@rcvh.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6303-9293
SPIN-code: 2336-4545

MD, Dr. Sci. (Med.), Professor

Russian Federation, Moscow

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2. Fig. 1. ROC-curve for predicting lethal outcome.

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