Enviar artigo por via de e-mail Forecast of Polar Stratospheric Vortex Dynamics Using the SL-AV Global Atmosphere Model
- Autores: Shashkin V.V.1,2,3
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Afiliações:
- Institute of Numerical Mathematics
- Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation
- Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (State University)
- Edição: Volume 43, Nº 3 (2018)
- Páginas: 188-191
- Seção: The Winners of the Conference of Young Scientists
- URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/1068-3739/article/view/230841
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S106837391803007X
- ID: 230841
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Resumo
The quality of Arctic winter stratospheric dynamics forecast using the SL-AV atmospheric global circulation model is studied. The series of numerical experiments show that forecasts with the lead time up to 7 days are successful. Zonal wind reversal during minor sudden stratospheric warmings is predicted 10–11 days ahead. Overall, the situations of strong polar jet disturbances are beneficial for the forecast accuracy.
Sobre autores
V. Shashkin
Institute of Numerical Mathematics; Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation; Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (State University)
Autor responsável pela correspondência
Email: vvshashkin@gmail.com
Rússia, ul. Gubkina 8, Moscow, 119333; Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 11–13, Moscow, 123242; Institutskiy per. 9, Dolgoprudny, 141701
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