Email this article Forecast of Polar Stratospheric Vortex Dynamics Using the SL-AV Global Atmosphere Model
- Authors: Shashkin V.V.1,2,3
-
Affiliations:
- Institute of Numerical Mathematics
- Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation
- Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (State University)
- Issue: Vol 43, No 3 (2018)
- Pages: 188-191
- Section: The Winners of the Conference of Young Scientists
- URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/1068-3739/article/view/230841
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S106837391803007X
- ID: 230841
Cite item
Open Access
Access granted
Subscription Access
Abstract
The quality of Arctic winter stratospheric dynamics forecast using the SL-AV atmospheric global circulation model is studied. The series of numerical experiments show that forecasts with the lead time up to 7 days are successful. Zonal wind reversal during minor sudden stratospheric warmings is predicted 10–11 days ahead. Overall, the situations of strong polar jet disturbances are beneficial for the forecast accuracy.
About the authors
V. V. Shashkin
Institute of Numerical Mathematics; Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation; Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (State University)
Author for correspondence.
Email: vvshashkin@gmail.com
Russian Federation, ul. Gubkina 8, Moscow, 119333; Bolshoi Predtechenskii per. 11–13, Moscow, 123242; Institutskiy per. 9, Dolgoprudny, 141701
