Email this article Changes in Surface Temperature in the Arctic: Accuracy of Model Reproduction and Probabilistic Prediction for the Near Future
- Authors: Sporyshev P.V.1, Kattsov V.M.1, Gulev S.K.2
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Affiliations:
- Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory
- Shirshov Institute of Oceanology
- Issue: Vol 479, No 2 (2018)
- Pages: 503-506
- Section: Geophysics
- URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/1028-334X/article/view/192861
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X18040189
- ID: 192861
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Abstract
The abilities of an ensemble of present-day global climate models are analyzed during modeling of evolution of the Arctic surface temperature over land including spatial consistency between the modeled and observed data. These results are the basis for probabilistic regional prediction of variation in the surface air temperature for the near future (2021–2040).
About the authors
P. V. Sporyshev
Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory
Author for correspondence.
Email: sporyshev@inbox.ru
Russian Federation, St. Petersburg, 194021
V. M. Kattsov
Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory
Email: sporyshev@inbox.ru
Russian Federation, St. Petersburg, 194021
S. K. Gulev
Shirshov Institute of Oceanology
Email: sporyshev@inbox.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow, 117997
