A theory of the global demographic process
- Autores: Podlazov A.1
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Afiliações:
- Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics
- Edição: Volume 87, Nº 3 (2017)
- Páginas: 256-266
- Seção: Point of View
- URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/1019-3316/article/view/178945
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1019331617030054
- ID: 178945
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Resumo
Throughout human history, the human population has grown with blow-up; however, in recent decades population growth has slowed, tending toward stabilization of the size of the population (demographic transition). The notion of life-saving technologies is introduced in this work; their development is treated as the driver of history; the principle of the technological imperative is formulated, according to which the number of living people is correlated with the level of technological development. A model of global demographic growth is built on this basis, and the growth limits are determined. The demographic transition is explained as the effect of approximation to these limits. A corresponding phenomenological model is proposed, which agrees well with the data.
Sobre autores
A. Podlazov
Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics
Autor responsável pela correspondência
Email: Tiger@Keldysh.ru
Rússia, Moscow