A theory of the global demographic process

详细

Throughout human history, the human population has grown with blow-up; however, in recent decades population growth has slowed, tending toward stabilization of the size of the population (demographic transition). The notion of life-saving technologies is introduced in this work; their development is treated as the driver of history; the principle of the technological imperative is formulated, according to which the number of living people is correlated with the level of technological development. A model of global demographic growth is built on this basis, and the growth limits are determined. The demographic transition is explained as the effect of approximation to these limits. A corresponding phenomenological model is proposed, which agrees well with the data.