A theory of the global demographic process
- Authors: Podlazov A.V.1
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Affiliations:
- Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics
- Issue: Vol 87, No 3 (2017)
- Pages: 256-266
- Section: Point of View
- URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/1019-3316/article/view/178945
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1019331617030054
- ID: 178945
Cite item
Abstract
Throughout human history, the human population has grown with blow-up; however, in recent decades population growth has slowed, tending toward stabilization of the size of the population (demographic transition). The notion of life-saving technologies is introduced in this work; their development is treated as the driver of history; the principle of the technological imperative is formulated, according to which the number of living people is correlated with the level of technological development. A model of global demographic growth is built on this basis, and the growth limits are determined. The demographic transition is explained as the effect of approximation to these limits. A corresponding phenomenological model is proposed, which agrees well with the data.
About the authors
A. V. Podlazov
Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics
Author for correspondence.
Email: Tiger@Keldysh.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow