ECOLOGY AND CLIMATE: WHERE WE ARE NOW AND WHERE WE WILL BE IN TWO OR THREE DECADES. GLOBAL TRENDS

The article is the first of the two contributions based upon the authors’ studies and reports provided to Horizon-2040. The latter is a project organized by the Agency for Strategic Initiatives serving a platform for strategic dialogue to determine the role and position of Russia in the international arena in 2040 and produce scenarios for the national long-term development trends in the key areas, environment and climate inclusive. The current state of the global environmental and climate change issues is contemplated. Also considered is dynamics of these issues within the past 50 years in terms of the global sustainable development priorities. A qualitative forecast of the state and expected developments in coping with the issues above by 2040 is introduced. The key challenges associated with the World Ocean, land waters, air quality, environmental situation in the cities, climate and biodiversity issues are briefly discussed. The priority strategic role of biodiversity in sustainable development of the world community and economy within the long term perspective is substantiated. Emphasized arwpoor understanding and under-evaluation of adaptation policy role in the global climate agenda. Distinguished are the four types of key events according to their contribution to the homo ecologicus formation. Also disclosed are the four key factors precipitating the existing poor situation in environmental and climate policy areas and tendencies of their further deterioration which (factors) involve public awareness, value system and human activity attitudes.