The Russian economy: Borders of growth

The purpose of this article is to predict the likely dynamics of Russia’s GDP and consumption fund for 15 years, based solely on highly aggregated characteristics of investment activity—the savings rate and the incremental capital−output ratio. Hypotheses regarding investment parameters are formed with account for their values and trends during the retrospective period 2001–2020. The results of forecast calculations show that there is a fundamental possibility to ensure the average annual GDP growth rate for the period up to 2035 at approximately 3%. This will require serious investments to increase the savings rate to 26−27% in three to four years, at the same time significantly improving the quality of the investment resource and the return on additional capital, and to begin forming a production apparatus on a new technological platform.