Estimation of Seismic Hazards of Low-Active Areas: Case Study of Kerch–Taman Region

Abstract

The paper presents the results of recent paleoseismological and archeoseismological investigations of the Kerch–Taman region. Data are obtained on local potential sources of large earthquakes that determine the seismic hazard level. The investigations convincingly show that the seismic activity level of the instrumental period of observations does not always characterize the real seismic hazard, even very generally. Seismogenerating zones with expected magnitudes of subsequent earthquakes ranging from 6.0 to 7.0 are revealed. The results allow us to conclude that the region is presently at the stage of seismic quiescence, probably before a large earthquake.