编号 3 (124) (2024)

The article examines France's prospects as a power in the changing world. The starting point is the period when Charles de Gaulle was in power (1958-1969), aspiring for maximum possible independence in the international arena. The article describes the process of adaptation of French foreign policy to new international realities under the successors of Charles de Gaulle, in particular the emergence of supranational institutions, increased interactions with the United States, rapprochement with NATO and the return of the country to its military structures. At the same time, France defended its national interests, relying on a number of factors that allowed to maintain its power. President E. Macron generally continues this course, but tries to link France’s power prospects with the promotion of the idea of the “power of Europe”. In this regard, the research explores the current relations between France and the EU, the United States and NATO, the situation in the Franco-German tandem, which for a long time played the crucial role in the integration, the new role of Poland in Europe, and the problem of the possible accession of Ukraine to the EU. It is concluded that nowadays the idea of the “power of Europe” looks unrealistic. In the long term, this concept could be put into practice, but it will not necessarily serve French interests. The article also discusses Emmanuel Macron's foreign policy in Africa, in the Mediterranean and Indo-Pacific regions.

The article is dedicated to one of the key problems of our time - migration processes in Europe and their consequences on the example of the Benelux countries. The purpose of the study is to identify the features of the migration policy of the Benelux countries in recent years, the mechanisms of their regulatory and legal system, capable or unable to regulate migration processes. Using the comparative-institutional method, as well as event analysis, the trends of migration in this region as a recipient of a significant influx of emigrants and refugees, are shown. Attention is focused on the common and distinctive features of the migration policy of Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg. The author notes the generally liberal approach of the Benelux countries to solving the problem, which to a certain extent damages their national interests, creates social and humanitarian problems. The authorities of these countries are faced with an increase in migration from Muslim countries and their religious attitudes, the refugee crisis, and issues of social adaptation and integration of migrants. Immigration processes are accompanied by an increase in crime, destabilization of the internal situation, and discontent of the local population. The authorities are forced to periodically review their political and diplomatic tools, adapt and modify them in order to reduce the number of illegal migrants and the risks of renewed conflicts on ethnic and religious grounds. The author relied on the works of domestic and foreign authors, statistical information of European migration services, as well as information from international experts in this field. As a result, the characteristics of the migration policy of the countries under study are given, the consequences of mass migrations are determined. The author substantiates the conclusion that the solution to the migration issue in the Benelux countries is not visible in the near future, despite the coordinated efforts of their security structures. Effective management of migration and mitigation of negative consequences have yet to be developed and put into practice.

The article analyses the main trends in the transformation of the party and political system of the European Union on the eve of the next elections to the European Parliament in June 2024. The article examines the main events of recent years that had the main impact on the process of this transformation. New trends in the change of this system were noted, which included strengthening the popularity and influence of Eurosceptic parties, increasing internal tension concerning relations between old and new members of the European Union. The research demonstrates that following the results of the national parliamentary elections held over the past five years in almost all EU member states, the influence of the leading political parties, which for many years occupied dominant positions in the executive and representative authorities of these countries, has significantly decreased. The phenomenon of increasing representation of women in the bodies of the EU and its member states and its impact on their formation is considered. The influence of changes in the social structure of the European community and their impact on the electoral preferences of Europeans is analysed. The preelection positions of all leading European parties that currently have their factions in the European Parliament are presented, including their election manifestos and candidacies for the post of the President of the European Commission (EC), the so-called Spitzenkandidaten. The forecasts of the results of the participation of leading panEuropean political parties in the European Parliament Elections 2024, made by a number of European non-governmental organizations and leading media holdings, as well as possible options for post-election inter-party coalitions that shape positions of the European Parliament, are demonstrated.

The article analyses the state of the EU energy market during the energy crisis of 2020-2023 and its development taking into account the climate agenda and the European Union’s self-restrictions on the import of primary fossil energy resources. The article examines the role of the climate agenda in the adoption of measures distorting the energy sector and provoking a full-scale energy crisis. It revealed itself in decrease of the reliability of energy supply, which became hostage of weather conditions due to increasing the share of renewable energy sources in the energy sector. The author scrutinises the main fuel segments of this market, assesses their volatility, and gives a forecast of its development for the period up to 2030-2045; analyses the EU's actions in the context of a shortage of fuel resources, their negative consequences for energy-intensive industries. Trends in rising prices for all types of energy resources, leading to the general deindustrialisation of Europe, provoked by the European energy crisis and the decision of the EU, which abandoned the main supplier of energy resources - Russia, are explored. It is stated that this decision was not provided with alternatives comparable in scope and conditions. Possibilities and prospects for the export of Russian energy resources to EU countries in the context of sanctions are predicted, including the possibility that the goal set by the European Union to abandon Russian fossil fuels by 2027 will not be achieved. It is concluded that the European Union is turning into a region of energy poverty, in which, instead of the declared sustainable energy, European consumers face unstable energy supplies, possibilities of blackouts and significantly increased electricity bills.

Tectonic changes in the system of modern geo-economic relations necessitate the revision of many theoretical postulates. One of them is the unconditional benefit of participating in integration associations. The purpose of the study is to assess the real scale of benefits received by Central-Eastern European countries from participation in the EU. The study of the relatively long experience of membership of CentralEastern European countries in the EU allowed to formulate some conclusions, the most significant of which are: the excessive ideological and political argumentation used in Central-Eastern European countries in the initial period of decision-making on accession to the EU, which significantly reduced the effectiveness of the analysis of the economic consequences of the future membership; the significant methodological complexity of conducting a quantified analysis of the macroeconomic aspects of EU membership and, therefore, the difficulty of determining the quantifiable impact of the general effects of integration in relation to the countries of Central-Eastern Europe; the presence of overly optimistic assessments of the effectiveness of Central-Eastern European countries receiving transfers from the EU budget.

Currently, the Arctic region is experiencing a political crisis associated with a sharp limitation of the Arctic Council activities. The complex geopolitical situation was initiated unilaterally by the states of the collective West, which consistently led to a new strategic confrontation between Russia and NATO. The article analyses the main trends and activities of the members of the North Atlantic Alliance in the Arctic, which directly indicate the formation of policies and tools to contain Russia in the region. The author emphasises that Sweden and Finland's NATO accession increases tension, creates challenges and threats to the Russian national security in the light of the international military development. The consistent growth in the activity and presence of NATO in the region after the start of the special military operation (SMO/SVO) is traced and detailed. It is stated that the potential opportunities for Russia-NATO dialogue in the Arctic are decreasing. The article examines the Russian Federation's response measures to strengthen national security in the region. The author makes a conclusion that there is the need for improvement a comprehensive system for monitoring the situation in the Arctic in order to negate the possibility of incorrect interpretation of military activity in the context of the current phase of crisis. It is indicated that the further affairs in the Arctic are closely dependent on the results of the SMO.

The world has entered an acute phase of a protracted macrocrisis, one of the most striking manifestations of which is the processes of disengagement in global politics. The logic of confrontation inevitably aggravates old conflicts and reproduces new ones. The centrifugal dynamics received an explosive impetus because of directly interconnected process of internationalisation of the Ukrainian crisis and “Ukrainisation” of the Western-centric agenda. Conflict motives of local, regional, geopolitical divides, and gaps are acquiring increasing practical and political significance. The logic of asymmetrical, multidirectional interactions in global politics is rapidly gaining momentum. The previously inertial confrontation between the United States and Russia, the United States and China has moved into the acute phase of a dangerous confrontation. The potential for resolving the most important geopolitical and military-strategic problems in their relations has been reduced by US efforts to a critical minimum. A focused reflection of geopolitical divisions has become the sophisticated construction of a new Iron Curtain around Russia by the united West. The world is actually divided into the World Majority, whose countries take a neutral or favorable position towards Russia, and a non-structurally formalised coalition of countries led by the United States, guided by American foreign policy goals and priorities. Lines of demarcation and fragmentation run across a variety of spheres and formats, regional and geopolitical areas, erecting new boundaries and barriers in interstate cooperation and creating a dangerous tilt and distortions in strategic security. In the context of the chaotisation of world politics and the rapid development of centrifugal processes of geopolitical and geo-economic demarcations and confrontations, the asymmetry of approaches to the prospects for reformatting the world order is becoming increasingly visible.

The article discusses the results achieved by China in promoting the “Polar Silk Road” (PSR) Initiative in the Arctic. The preconditions for the development of the ideological and conceptual basis of the PSR Initiative consisted of the growing alarmism in the late 2000s around the forecasts of climate change and the volume of Arctic resources. Under these conditions, the Western thesis of an Ice-Free Arctic (wubin beiji) was developed in China’s expert community. China’s leadership changes in 2012 and Xi Jinping's promotion of new foreign policy ideas of “Belt and Road” and “community of humanity's destiny” revitalised the expert discourse, reorienting it to form within a new conceptual framework. Under these condition in 2017 the PSR Initiative was launched. As a result of the West's counteraction, and narrowing of China’s investment opportunities, the prospects for expanding the partnership within the framework of the PSR Initiative, which is still not recognized by any Arctic state, including Russia, are decreasing. Thus, Beijing's desire to focus on the implementation of two directions of China's policy in the Arctic is analysed: deepening Russia-China cooperation in the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation and ensuring participation in dealing with issues related to the central part of the Arctic Ocean.