The Impact of Climate Change on Surface, Subsurface, and Groundwater Flow: A Case Study of the Oka River (European Russia)

Abstract

The article considers an approach to evaluating the change in surface, subsurface and groundwater flow on a large river catchment exemplified by the Oka River basin. The study is based on the synthesis of a physical-mathematical model of runoff formation and atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. The paper presents the results of calibration and verification of a hydrological model over a period of history, as well as the assessment of reproduction accuracy of meteorological and hydrological characteristics according to the data of global climate models and observation data. Based on an ensemble of atmosphere–ocean general circulation models, the changes in meteorological (air temperature, precipitation, air humidity deficit) and hydrological (surface runoff, soil moisture content, groundwater flow) characteristics by the middle and the end of the 21st century have been calculated, under the scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0 with regard to the historical period.