Possibilities of Flood Forecasting in the West Caucasian Rivers Based on FCM Model

Аннотация

The West Caucasus is the only Russian region where disastrous floods cause a great number of victims regularly. Developing the automated monitoring networks in the Kuban River Basin and Krasnodar Krai has improved the quality of hydrological information over the last years; however, its use for flood forecasting has to be more effective. The paper presents methods of short-term flood forecasting for West Caucasian rivers with rain floods prevalence during the warm season. They are based on applying the Flood Cycle Model (FCM), which has been tested for the first time in the region (the case study of the Tuapse, Psekups, and Pshish rivers). The presented forecasting methods, whose quality completely conforms to the criteria of the Russian Hydrometeorological Service, can enhance the existing hydrological forecasting systems. To further develop the flood forecasting methods for the West Caucasian rivers using physically based models, it is critically important to increase the precipitation measuring network density within the mountain parts of watersheds.