Stochastic Modeling of Extreme Precipitation: a Regional Approach

Abstract

A generalized step-by-step statistical method for calculating the maximal precipitation sums of low probability is proposed. The method is applied to the case of daily precipitation for the Amur River basin. Refined statistical characteristics of maximum daily precipitation for the warm period are obtained. A map of daily precipitation of 1% exceedance probability is compiled over the territory of the Amur River. The obtained quantiles of the daily maximum precipitation are compared with probable maximum precipitation values obtained using WMO methodology.