Projecting Changes in Russian Northern River Runoff due to Possible Climate Change during the 21st Century: A Case Study of the Northern Dvina, Taz and Indigirka Rivers


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Abstract

Projected changes in river runoff due to possible climate change during the 21st century were simulated with making use of a physically-based land surface model SWAP and meteorological projections simulated by five Global Climate Models (GCMs) for each of four RCP scenarios. The Northern Dvina, Indigirka, and Taz river basins were used in the study. For each basin, 20 projections of changes in climatic river runoff were obtained for three climatic periods of the 21st century. The projected changes in climatic river runoff were analyzed together with the projected changes in climatic precipitation, incoming shortwave and longwave radiation, and evapotranspiration. The obtained hydrological projections were used to estimate their uncertainties resulting from the application of different GCMs and RCP scenarios.

About the authors

O. N. Nasonova

Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences

Author for correspondence.
Email: olniknas@yandex.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow, 119333

Ye. M. Gusev

Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: olniknas@yandex.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow, 119333

E. E. Kovalev

Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: olniknas@yandex.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow, 119333

G. V. Ayzel

Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: olniknas@yandex.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow, 119333

K. M. Panysheva

Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences; Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography

Email: olniknas@yandex.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow, 119333; Moscow, 119991

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