Projecting Changes in Russian Northern River Runoff due to Possible Climate Change during the 21st Century: A Case Study of the Northern Dvina, Taz and Indigirka Rivers
- Authors: Nasonova O.N.1, Gusev Y.M.1, Kovalev E.E.1, Ayzel G.V.1, Panysheva K.M.1,2
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Affiliations:
- Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences
- Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography
- Issue: Vol 46, No Suppl 1 (2019)
- Pages: S145-S154
- Section: Interaction between Continental Waters and the Environmental
- URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/0097-8078/article/view/175309
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807819070145
- ID: 175309
Cite item
Abstract
Projected changes in river runoff due to possible climate change during the 21st century were simulated with making use of a physically-based land surface model SWAP and meteorological projections simulated by five Global Climate Models (GCMs) for each of four RCP scenarios. The Northern Dvina, Indigirka, and Taz river basins were used in the study. For each basin, 20 projections of changes in climatic river runoff were obtained for three climatic periods of the 21st century. The projected changes in climatic river runoff were analyzed together with the projected changes in climatic precipitation, incoming shortwave and longwave radiation, and evapotranspiration. The obtained hydrological projections were used to estimate their uncertainties resulting from the application of different GCMs and RCP scenarios.
About the authors
O. N. Nasonova
Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences
Author for correspondence.
Email: olniknas@yandex.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow, 119333
Ye. M. Gusev
Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences
Email: olniknas@yandex.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow, 119333
E. E. Kovalev
Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences
Email: olniknas@yandex.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow, 119333
G. V. Ayzel
Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences
Email: olniknas@yandex.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow, 119333
K. M. Panysheva
Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences; Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography
Email: olniknas@yandex.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow, 119333; Moscow, 119991
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