Application of the Land Surface Model SWAP and Global Climate Model INMCM4.0 for Projecting Runoff of Northern Russian Rivers. 2. Projections and Their Uncertainties

Abstract

Projections of possible changes in streamflow of three northern rivers (the Northern Dvina, Kolyma, and Indigirka) up to 2100 were calculated for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios: a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) and a medium mitigation scenario (RCP4.5) used for the fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For each scenario, several hydrological projections were obtained using different models (AOGCM INMCM4.0 and LSM SWAP) and different post-processing techniques for correcting biases in meteorological forcing data simulated by INMCM4.0 and used to drive the SWAP model. Uncertainties in river runoff projections associated with the application of different emission scenarios, different models, and bias-correction techniques were estimated and analyzed.