Validation of a Hydrological Model Intended for Impact Study: Problem Statement and Solution Example for Selenga River Basin
- Authors: Gelfan A.N.1,2, Millionshchikova T.D.1
- 
							Affiliations: 
							- Water Problems Institute
- Department of Land Hydrology, Faculty of Geography
 
- Issue: Vol 45, No Suppl 1 (2018)
- Pages: 90-101
- Section: Article
- URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/0097-8078/article/view/174759
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807818050354
- ID: 174759
Cite item
Abstract
The study is aimed to evaluate a hydrological simulation model intended for assessing climate change impact. A new test was suggested and applied to evaluate the performance of a physically based model of Selenga River runoff generation. In this test, to calibrate the model, an enhanced Nash–and-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) criterion was used, including trend-oriented reference (benchmark) models instead of the simple reference model used in the original NSE criterion. Next, modifications were made in the Differential Split Sample test (DSS-test) of V. Klemeš (1986), focused on differences in the model performance criteria for climatically contrasting periods, and a new statistical measure was proposed to estimate the significance of these differences. After that, model performance was evaluated for four sites within the catchment, three indicators of interest (daily, monthly, and annual discharge series), and the model ability to reproduce the observed trends in annual and seasonal discharge values was assessed. The model proved robust enough to be applied to assessing climate change impact on the annual and monthly runoff in different parts of the Selenga River basin.
About the authors
A. N. Gelfan
Water Problems Institute; Department of Land Hydrology, Faculty of Geography
														Email: tatyana.million@mail.ru
				                					                																			                												                	Russian Federation, 							Moscow, 119333; Moscow, 119991						
T. D. Millionshchikova
Water Problems Institute
							Author for correspondence.
							Email: tatyana.million@mail.ru
				                					                																			                												                	Russian Federation, 							Moscow, 119333						
Supplementary files
 
				
			 
					 
						 
						 
						 
						 
				 
  
  
  
  
  Email this article
			Email this article  Open Access
		                                Open Access Access granted
						Access granted Subscription Access
		                                		                                        Subscription Access
		                                					