The Earth Climate and Quasi-Bicentennial Variations in the Volcanic Activity

Cover Page

Cite item

Full Text

Open Access Open Access
Restricted Access Access granted
Restricted Access Subscription Access

Abstract

Six temperature reconstructions for the Northern Hemisphere, three temperature reconstructions for the Southern Hemisphere, and two reconstructions of the volcanic activity covering time intervals from 980 to 2016 years were analyzed using the Fourier and wavelet techniques. It was shown that the volcanic activity varied with a period of 170–250 years since the mid-13th century. A similar periodicity is observed in variation of the Northern Hemisphere temperature. As shown by statistical analysis using the wavelet filtering, the correlation analysis, and the Fisher's statistical approach, the probability that no relationship exists between the quasi-bicentennial temperature periodicity in the Northern Hemisphere after 1270 and the corresponding variations in the volcanic activity does not exceed 7.4×10-3. In the Southern Hemisphere, no evidence of the influence of quasi-bicentennial variations in volcanic activity on temperature was revealed. Possible reasons of the obtained results are discussed.

About the authors

M. G. Ogurtsov

Ioffe Physical-Technical Institute

Email: maxim.ogurtsov@mail.ioffe.ru
St. Petersburg, Russia

References

  1. Огурцов М.Г. Циклы солнечной активности и климат Северного Полушария Земли // Журн. Техн. Физ. Т. 94. № 12. С. 1996–1998. 2024. https://doi.org/10.61011/JTF.2024.12.59242.337–24.
  2. Огурцов М.Г. Квазидвухсотлетняя вариация в температуре Северного полушария Земли // Геомагнетизм и аэрономия. Т. 65. № 4. С. 542–551. 2025.
  3. Baldini J., Brown R., Mcelwaine J. Was millennial scale climate change during the Last Glacial triggered by explosive volcanism? // Sci. Rep. V. 5. ID 17442. 2015. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep17442.
  4. Barnett T.P., Santer B.D., Jones P.D., Bradley R.S., Briffa K.R. Estimates of low frequency natural variability in near-surface air temperature // The Holocene. V. 6. № 3. P. 255–263. 1996. https://doi.org/10.1177/095968369600600301.
  5. Breitenmoser P., Beer J., Brönnimann S., Frank D., Steinhilber F., Wanner H. Solar and volcanic fingerprints in tree-ring chronologies over the past 2000 years // Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology. V. 313–314. P. 127–139. 2012. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2011.10.014.
  6. Briffa K.R. Annual climate variability in the Holocene: interpreting the message of ancient trees // Quat. Sci. Rev. V. 19. P. 87–105. 2000. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(99)00056-6.
  7. Büntgen U., Allen K., Anchukaitis K.J., Arseneault D., Boucher E., Chatterjee S. The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions // Nat. Commun. V. 12. 3411. 2021. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23627-6.
  8. Christiansen B., Ljungqvist F.C. The extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere temperature in the last two millennia: reconstructions of low-frequency variability // Clim. of the Past. V. 8. P. 765–786. 2022. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-765-2012.
  9. Crowley T., Unterman M. Technical details concerning development of a 1200 yr proxy index for global volcanism // Earth System Science Data. V. 5. P. 187–197. 2013. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-187-2013.
  10. Gao C., Robock A., Ammann C. Volcanic forcing of climate over the past 1500 years: An improved ice core-based index for climate models // J. Geophys. Res. V. 113. ID D23111. 2008. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010239.
  11. Gleckler P., Achutarao K., Gregory J., Santer B.D., Taylor K.E., Wigley L.M. Krakatoa lives: The effect of volcanic eruptions on ocean heat content and thermal expansion // Geophys. Res. Lett. V. 33. ID L17702. 2006. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026771.
  12. Fisher R.A. Statistical methods for research workers. Oliver and Boyd, Edinburgh. 1925.
  13. Guillet S., Corona C., Khodri M., Lavigne F., Ortega P., Eckert N. et al. Climate response to the Samalas volcanic eruption in 1257 revealed by proxy records // Nat. Geosci. V. 10. P. 123–128. 2017. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2875.
  14. Jones P.D., Briffa K.R., Barnett T.P., Tett S.F.B. High-resolution palaeoclimatic records for the last millennium: interpretation, integration and comparison with General Circulation Model control-run temperatures // Holocene. V. 8. № 4. P. 455–471. 1998. https://doi.org/10.1191/095968398667194956.
  15. Liu X.Q., Dong H.L., Yang X.D., Herzschuh U., Zhang E.L., Suuul J.B.W., Wang Y.B. Late Holocene forcing of the Asian winter and summer monsoon as evidenced by proxy records from the northern Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau // Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. V. 280. P. 276–284. 2009. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2009.01.041.
  16. Mann M.E., Jones P.D. Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia // Geophys. Res. Lett. V. 30. № 15. ID 1820. 2003. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL017814.
  17. McGregor H.V., Evans M.N., Goose H., Guillaume L., Belen M. et al. Robust global ocean cooling trend for the pre-industrial Common Era // Nat. Geosci. V. 8. P. 671–677. 2015. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2510.
  18. Moberg A., Sonechkin D.M., Holmgren K., Datsenko M., Karlen W. Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data // Nature. V. 433. P. 613–617. 2005. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03265.
  19. Monerie P.-A., Moine M.-P., Terray L., Valcke S. Quantifying the impact of early 21st century volcanic eruptions on global-mean surface temperature Environ. Res. Lett. 2017. V. 12. ID 054010. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aadeb5.
  20. Neukom R., Gergis J., Karoly D., Wanner H., Curran M., Elbert J., González-Rouco F., Linsley B.K., Moy A.D., Mundo I. et al. Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the last millennium // Nature Clim. Change. V. 4. P. 2014. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2174.
  21. Novello V., Vuille M., Cruz F.W., Striki N., Paula M., Edwards R.L. et al. Centennial-scale solar forcing of the South American Monsoon System recorded in stalagmites // Sci. Reports. V. 6. № 1. 24762. 2016. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep24762.
  22. Ogurtsov M., Veretenenko S., Lindholm M., Jalkanen R. Possible solar-climate imprint in temperature proxies from the middle and high latitudes of North America // Adv. Space Res. V. 57. P. 1112–1117. 2016. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2015.12.026.
  23. Ogurtsov M. Study on possible solar influence on the climate of the Southern Hemisphere // Atmosphere. V. 13. 680. 2022. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13050680.
  24. Ogurtsov M.G. Biochemical volcanic activity cycles and their long-term impact on Northern Hemisphere climate // Atmosphere. V. 15. № 11. 1373. 2024. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15111373.
  25. Raspopov O.M., Dergachev V.A., Esper J., Kozyreva O.V., Frank D., Ogurtsov M., Shao X. The influence of the de Vries (~200-year) solar cycle on climate variations: Results from the Central Asian Mountains and their global link // Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology. V. 259. P. 6–16. 2008. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2006.12.017.
  26. Schneider L., Smerdon J.E., Büntgen U., Myglan V., Kirdyanov A.V., Esper J. Revising midlatitude summer temperatures back to A.D. 600 based on a wood density network // Geophys. Res. Lett. V. 42. P. 4556–4562. 2015. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL063956.
  27. Stouffer R.J., Manabe S., Bryan K. Interhemispheric asymmetry in climate response to a gradual increase of atmospheric CO2// Nature. V. 342. P. 660–662. 1989. https://doi.org/10.1038/342660a0.
  28. Torrence C., Compo G.P. A Practical guide to wavelet analysis // Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc. V. 79. P. 61–78. 1998. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1998)0790061:APGTWA2.0.CO;2.
  29. Wilmes S.B., Raible C.C., Stocker T.F. Climate variability of the mid- and high-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in ensemble simulations from 1500 to 2000 AD // Clim. Past. V. 8. P. 373–390. 2012. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-373-2012.
  30. Wilson R., Anchukaitis K., Briffa K., Büntgen U., Cook E., D’Arrigo R. Last millennium northern hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part 1: The long term context // Quat. Sci. Rev. V. 134. P. 1–18. 2016. j.quascirev.2015.12.005.
  31. Zhong, Y., Miller G., Otto-Bliesner B., Holland M.M., Bailey D.A. et al. Centennial-scale climate change from decadally-paced explosive volcanism: A coupled sea ice-ocean mechanism // Clim. Dyn. V. 37. P. 2373–2387. 2011. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0967-z.

Supplementary files

Supplementary Files
Action
1. JATS XML
Download

Copyright (c) 2025 Russian Academy of Sciences

Согласие на обработку персональных данных

 

Используя сайт https://journals.rcsi.science, я (далее – «Пользователь» или «Субъект персональных данных») даю согласие на обработку персональных данных на этом сайте (текст Согласия) и на обработку персональных данных с помощью сервиса «Яндекс.Метрика» (текст Согласия).