Gnevishev-Ohl rule: current status

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Abstract

A statistical study of the statements of the Gnevyshev—Ohl rule (GOR) and of some its interpretations has been carried out. The original formulation of the GOR states that for the summary index of solar activity over the 11-year cycle SW, there is a close connection in pairs of an even and the subsequent odd cycles (EO), while opposite pairs (OE) exhibit no such connection. This statement strictly holds with the significance level a = 0.01, for the new version of the sunspot index SN 2.0 (Wolf numbers). In this case, an even cycle is followed by an odd one with a greater SW. For amplitudes of cycles the GOR is observed only as a trend, and the difference of connections in pairs of cycles EO and OE is statistically insignificant. The alternation of the cycle magnitude, both for the parameter and the amplitudes, is also not statistically confirmed. It has been found that various aspects of the GOR are statistically better fulfilled for the new version of the sunspot index SN 2.0, which speaks in favor of further use of this index in solar physics.

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About the authors

Yu. A. Nagovitsyn

Central Astronomical Observatory of Russian Academy of Sciences at Pulkovo; State University of Aerospace Instrumentation

Author for correspondence.
Email: nag-yury@yandex.ru
Russian Federation, Saint Petersburg; Saint Petersburg

A. A. Osipova

Central Astronomical Observatory of Russian Academy of Sciences at Pulkovo

Email: nag-yury@yandex.ru
Russian Federation, Saint Petersburg

V. G. Ivanov

Central Astronomical Observatory of Russian Academy of Sciences at Pulkovo

Email: nag-yury@yandex.ru
Russian Federation, Saint Petersburg

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2. Fig. 1. Wolf numbers: version 1.0 (a), version 2.0 (b). Even-next odd cycle dependence for cycle sums: version W¹˙⁰ (c), version W²˙⁰ (d), the dashed lines indicate the pair of cycles #22–#23. Odd-next even cycle dependence for cycle sums: version W¹˙⁰ (d), version W²˙⁰ (e). Straight lines are regressions, R are the corresponding correlation coefficients.

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3. Fig. 2. Even-next odd cycle dependence for cycle amplitudes: W¹˙⁰ version (a), W²˙⁰ version (b), the dashes indicate the pair of cycles No. 22–23. Odd-next even cycle dependence for cycle amplitudes: W¹˙⁰ version (c), W²˙⁰ version (d). Straight lines are regressions, R are the corresponding correlation coefficients.

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