Vol 54, No 8 (2018)

This paper summarizes the results of long-term (2004–2016) comprehensive experimental studies of microphysical parameters and the mass concentration of aerosol particles in the atmospheric surface layer of semiarid regions of Kalmykia arranged by the Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Characteristic values of the mass and number concentrations of aerosol particles in the summer have been determined for different velocities. A significant decrease in the concentration of surface submicron- and micron-sized aerosols in comparison with their values observed in desert areas of Kalmykia in the 1990s has been found. Mass concentration distributions over aerosol particle fractions have been obtained. The diurnal course of the particle number concentration has been studied taking the meteorological conditions (air temperature, velocity, and humidity) and the underlying surface into consideration. The particle-size distribution functions characteristic of atmospheric aerosols in Kalmykia have been determined. The removal of particles has been coupled with the main meteorological parameters in the atmospheric near-surface layer. A large number of submicron-sized particles have been found to persist in the atmospheric surface layer of semiarid landscapes, confirming that they are the main sources of transport of fine mineral aerosol particles, which are most dangerous to human health and actively engaged in biospheric and climate change processes.

Areas with large gradients and anomalous variations in geomagnetic and radiation fields have been revealed and mapped at the northwestern foot of the Katun ridge, within an active seismic zone of its junction with the Uimon Depression (Altai Mountains). Six micropopulations of Lonicera caerulea are specified in areas with contrast geophysical parameters. The effect of a combination of undifferentiated geological–geophysical factors related to seismotectonic activity on the intensification of mutation of L. caerulea has been analyzed. It consists of a greater variability of the genome size and higher mitotic activity and frequency of pathological mitoses of seed generation. We have revealed a significant difference between micropopulations of L. caerulea in the genome size and reproductive characteristics (pollen fertility and morphometry; fruit mass; and production, viability, and energy of germination of seeds). A teratic form of L. caerulea (with numerous disturbances of microsporegenesis, resulting in formation of sterile pollen), is revealed in the zone of concentration of the fault network, which is mapped in a magnetometric and radonic survey. Most plants here produce seeds, which cannot germinate or are characterized by very low germination energy.

We consider the characteristics of seismicity before large earthquakes and the great earthquakes in the periphery of the Pacific Ocean. It is found that earthquakes with M_w = 7.0–9.2 that occurred in 1964–2016 were preceded by the formation of ring-shaped seismicity structures, usually in two depth ranges: 0–33 and 34–70 km. We obtain correlations between sizes of shallow (L) and deep (l) seismicity rings, threshold magnitudes (M_th1 and M_th2, respectively), and the time of their formation (T₁ and T₂, respectively) on magnitudes M_w of the mainshocks. It is shown that the sizes of ring-shaped structures at any given M_w for earthquakes in the western margin of the Pacific are significantly smaller than for those in the eastern margin. However, the values of M_th1 and M_th2 are close for these two regions. Parameters T₁ and T₂ vary considerably depending on the event, but on average they are ~27–30 years. It is supposed that the formation of ring-shaped structures is related to the migration of deep-seated fluids, while the difference between characteristics of these structures in the western and eastern margins of the Pacific are caused by different contents of fluids in the crust and upper mantle of the respective regions. This conclusion agrees with the available data on the peculiarities of aftershock processes of large earthquakes in the considered regions.

The process of the lead up and development of a catastrophic seismic event that affected the Earth’s crust and the upper mantle, which led to a change in the natural environment in the western part of the Zagros folded mountain belt, is analyzed. The macroseismic effect, the focal mechanism, the aftershock sequence, the seismotectonic position of the epicentral area, and other parameters characterizing the features of the zone of this catastrophic earthquake with magnitude М = 7.4 that occurred near the Iran–Iraq border on November 12, 2017, are described. In one settlement (Iraq, the city of Dzharband khan), a macroseismic effect corresponding to 9-points according to the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale is recorded. An area of about 150 × 100 km² underwent impacts of 7–8 points, tremors with the intensity of 5–6 points covered an extensive area of about 800 × 700 km², and 4- to 5-point impacts were observed all over western Iran and eastern Iraq and appeared in major cities such as Tehran, Baghdad, Kirkuk, Ahvad, and Pasht. In the period from November 12, 2017, until January 21, 2018, more than 50 aftershocks with magnitude mb = 4.2–5.6 were registered in the epicenter zone of the earthquake according to data from the Federal Research Center Geophysical Survey of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS). Their epicentral area extended in the near-meridional direction along the Iraq–Iran border, primarily to the south from the epicenter of the main shock. Its length reached about 210 km and width was about 60 km. The position of the epicentral field of the aftershocks makes it possible to associate the earthquake focus of November 12, 2017, with the Khanaqin fault zone of the meridional strike and dextral strike-slip kinematics. The fault crosses Zagros diagonally near the Iran–Iraq border. Given that the size of the earthquake focus is established by the distribution of epicenters of the aftershocks, it covered the Khanaqin fault zone almost over its entire length. Sufficient attention is paid to the identified prognostic effects. The data of observations from geophysical observatories reflecting the processes of earthquake lead up and development are presented. Before the earthquake of November 12, 2017, the information and measuring systems of the North Caucasus geophysical observatory of Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, RAS, had recorded gravitomagnetic disturbances of the ultralow frequency range. These prognostic effects appeared a few hours before the main shock. The conditions of the origination and development of seismogravity and gravitomagnetic disturbances are specified. In light of the presented material, it becomes clear that the experimental study of a separate class of fundamental gravitomagnetism problems identified in recent years is a defining problem of geophysics today. The gravitomagnetic disturbances in the lithosphere and other geospheres of the Earth recorded at large distances from the focal area can be considered a source of information on the time of appearance of the main high-magnitude shock. To use these effects for a real prediction of the expected magnitude and location and time of the pending earthquake, it is apparently necessary to develop a monitoring network at the observatory equipped with specialized measuring systems that can detect weak gravitomagnetic and seismogravity signals in the high-interference signaling environment on the Earth.

Here we provide a short description of an expert system for predicting the ice-jamming power in the area of the Northern Dvina River and a procedure to verify this system. This expert system is based on hydrological and meteorological data for 1991–2016. The data were processed using a machine learning technique and adjacent mathematics, because there is no mathematical model of the ice-jamming process and time series of observations are too short to apply classical statistics. This expert system was developed in 2012; it was adjusted using data from 1991–2010 seasons obtained at hydrological stations. The current investigation involves additional data on 2011–2016 seasons to repeat learning and estimate system quality. The developed system demonstrates a reliable efficiency: the forecast results coincide with observations for all six added seasons (2011–2016). It should be noted that the additional data do not change forecast accuracy, which remained approximately 85%, like in the previous study. All developed software is cross-platform, written with a C++ language, and is implemented as a command line application. This software can be easily adopted to operate as a part of the Northern Dvina River online monitoring service.

In the coming years, the high-precision processing of large arrays of modern observational data from the Global Satellite Navigation System (GNSS) will require knowledge of the theoretical values of the tidal numbers h and l of degrees 2 and 3 with a relative error no worse than 10^–4. This will make it possible to predict vertical and horizontal tidal displacements of the earth’s surface at the modern level. The paper presents the values of Love numbers h, k, and l of degrees 2 and 3 calculated for an inelastic ellipsoidal self-gravitating rotating earth without an ocean. Twelve different models are considered that differ from each other by the inclusion or exclusion of individual factors that affect the result. In particular, two different versions of the earth’s structure model are used, corrections for the relative and Coriolis accelerations are considered, and the values of the Love numbers are determined considering their latitude dependence. Lame elastic parameters were recalculated for the periods of semidiurnal and diurnal tidal waves using the logarithmic creep function to account for dissipation. The normalization of the obtained values of the Love numbers corresponds to International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) Conventions regarding the calculation of tidal displacements of the earth’s surface. The values are compared with the results of widely known works of other authors. Currently, the results are used to develop a new version of the ATLANTIDA3.1 software for predicting earth tides.

In order to develop astromineralogy, an emerging new research area, the results of studying the features of mineral genesis and geochemistry of native (SE) and rare-earth (TR) elements in host rocks of the biosphere outer shells and in space objects are presented. A set of methods, such as modern methods of astromineralogy, as well as modeling and the applied system analysis, is used. The theoretical models and hypotheses of the mechanisms of substructure-phase transformations of TR and SE elements under the influence of specific physicochemical conditions on the Moon and in space objects in comparison with the terrestrial objects are proposed. The theoretical importance and a practical role of intergeosphere criteria and systemology are shown. The material differences are substantiated between terrestrial and space objects that constitute seven groups of indicating criteria, whose complex can be used for objects of unknown origin: (1) geological and structural features—only the geological environment contains specific rocks of the catastrophite class, which always overlie basement rocks with angular unconformity and have signs of cooling and a reducing environment similar to the space environment; (2) petrochemical composition; (3) impurity elements; (4) the quantity, composition, morphology and structure of the SE; (5) the isotopic composition of carbon ¹⁴C; (6) composition of chemical elements of the TR group and radionuclides; and (7) different proton radiation power in the composition of solar wind under conditions of high vacuum in space (exotic micromixtures of native W and low-melting Sb, etc., in regolith) and the Earth’s atmosphere. New knowledge is applicable for the development of planetology, the theory of intergeosphere processes, the expansion of the resource base on the Moon, and the provision of space safety for the biosphere. The connection between catastrophic processes in the geoactive zones of the Earth and collision zones with the dispersion of minerals and rocks to nanosized suspensions and the formation of electrets in carrying over anomalous amounts of dust and oxides of C, N, and S to the atmosphere is discussed. These results are laid in the foundation of the method for earthquake prediction (patent no. 2516617…, 2014). A new class of multifunctional glass-crystalline materials, sikams (certificate no. 92355), which are also obtained from rocks comparable to lunar basalts in petrogeochemical features, is discovered.