Key risk factors and a prognostic model for vascular myelopathy
- Authors: Ponomarev G.V.1, Amelin A.V.1, Skoromets A.A.1
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Affiliations:
- Pavlov First Saint Petersburg State Medical University
- Issue: Vol 44, No 4 (2025)
- Pages: 435-443
- Section: Conference Proceedings
- URL: https://journals.rcsi.science/RMMArep/article/view/353812
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.17816/rmmar688474
- EDN: https://elibrary.ru/SXFPVC
- ID: 353812
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Abstract
BACKGROUND: Vascular myelopathy remains diagnostically challenging due to its polymorphic clinical presentation and the lack of clear differential diagnostic criteria, which leads to delayed diagnosis and worse outcomes. Although vascular risk factors are known to contribute to this condition, their combined interaction and relative contribution to spinal cord infarction are insufficiently understood.
AIM: This work aimed to systematize known and newly identified clinically significant risk factors for ischemic spinal cord injury and to develop a prognostic model of vascular myelopathy.
METHODS: A prospective and retrospective cohort study included 177 patients, divided into a spinal cord infarction group (n = 77) and a comparison group with other acute and subacute myelopathies (n = 100). Inclusion criteria were clinical and instrumental signs of myelopathy confirmed by magnetic resonance imaging, with subsequent stratification by etiology. The primary endpoint was identification of independent predictors of vascular spinal cord injury using multivariate logistic regression analysis.
RESULTS: Significant between-group differences were found in favor of the main group regarding atherosclerosis (75.3% vs 22.0%, p < 0.0001), aortic condition (50.6% vs 7.0%, p < 0.0001), hypercoagulable states (26.0% vs 2.0%, p < 0.0001), spinal cord arteriovenous malformations (20.8% vs 3.0%, p = 0.0002), and iatrogenic interventions (18.2% vs 3.0%, p = 0.001). Multivariate analysis identified four independent predictors of vascular myelopathy: aortic condition (OR = 28.1), thrombophilia (OR = 36.4), venous anomalies (OR = 21.4), and uncomplicated spinal trauma (OR = 11). These formed a prognostic model with AUC = 0.88, sensitivity of 87.0%, and specificity of 84.0%.
CONCLUSION: This study confirms the key role of macrovascular and thrombophilic factors in the pathogenesis of vascular myelopathy and proposes a clinically significant prognostic model for early diagnosis of this condition. The findings support the need for comprehensive angiographic and hemostasiologic assessment in patients with myelopathy of unclear origin.
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##article.viewOnOriginalSite##About the authors
Grigory V. Ponomarev
Pavlov First Saint Petersburg State Medical University
Author for correspondence.
Email: grigoryponomarev@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6219-8855
SPIN-code: 1143-4227
MD, Cand. Sci. (Medicine)
Russian Federation, Saint PetersburgAleksandr V. Amelin
Pavlov First Saint Petersburg State Medical University
Email: grigoryponomarev@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6437-232X
SPIN-code: 2402-7452
MD, Dr. Sci. (Medicine), Professor
Russian Federation, Saint PetersburgAleksandr A. Skoromets
Pavlov First Saint Petersburg State Medical University
Email: grigoryponomarev@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5884-3110
SPIN-code: 6273-8033
MD, Dr. Sci. (Medicine), Professor, Academician of the RAS
Russian Federation, Saint PetersburgReferences
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