American Intelligence on Russia's Role in the Modern System of International Relations

The article examines the U.S. Intelligence Community's Annual Threat Assessment 2025 with a focus on how it conceptualizes Russia's place in the international system and the implications for U.S. policy. The report situates Russia alongside China, Iran, and North Korea as a persistent state adversary, emphasizing both their deepening coordination and the rising risk of horizontal escalation across regional theaters. Two core claims about Russia are highlighted: first, the objectives of the special military operation are framed as an attempt to restore influence and secure guarantees in the post-Soviet space, which elevates the probability of inadvertent Russia–NATO confrontation; second, regardless of battlefield outcomes, the Russian state retains substantial resilience, making it a sustained challenge to U.S. interests. The article notes significant human and economic costs for Russia, growing dependence on China, and a narrowing of diplomatic maneuver, while also underscoring macroeconomic endurance (in PPP terms), expansion of defense-industrial capacity, and ongoing modernization of strategic forces. Externally, the assessment links the conflict to Western consolidation and NATO enlargement, alongside Russia's greater reliance on alternative platforms such as the SCO and BRICS. Although the ATA does not offer direct prescriptions, its analytic logic pushes U.S. decision-makers to account for escalation risks and the increasing connectivity of the China–Russia–Iran–North Korea alignment when calibrating policy toward Moscow.

ATA-2025, U.S. Intelligence Community, Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, great-power competition, Russia–NATO relations, defense-industrial capacity, strategic forces modernization, NATO enlargement, SCO, BRICS, U.S. policy toward Moscow