Прецеденты нераспространения: конфликт между США и Ираном в контексте сдерживания иранской ядерной программы

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Аннотация

Анализируются американские усилия по предотвращению создания Ираном ядерного оружия с 1950-х годов по настоящее время. Оценивается развитие иранского ядерно-оружейного кризиса в его историческом контексте: от концепции ядерной программы Ирана при шахе до достижения порогового уровня в создании ядерного оружия в наши дни. Подчёркивается, что в годы союзных отношений с шахским Ираном Вашингтон преуменьшал роль нераспространения. Обосновано, что после победы Революции 1979 г. американская политика главным образом фокусировалась не на правовых и технических аспектах процесса нераспространения, а на стремлении использовать критику иранской ядерной программы, чтобы изолировать Иран и добиться смены правящего религиозного руководства страны. Обосновывается, что санкции не заставили Тегеран отказаться от ядерных исследований, а лишь замедлили темпы разработки иранской оружейной ядерной программы. Показано, что решение президента Д. Трампа о выходе США из СВПД в 2018 г. является саботажем ядерного нераспространения, к началу 2023 г. Иран стал намного ближе к созданию ядерного оружия. Допускается, что Тегеран может разработать ядерное оружие всего за несколько месяцев, если он решит это сделать.

Об авторах

Николай Николаевич Бобкин

Институт США и Канады имени академика Г.А. Арбатова Российской академии наук (ИСКРАН)

Email: nnbobkin@rambler.ru
Москва, Российская Федерация

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