The Role and Prospects of the Taiwan Issue in China-U.S. Relations under Trump 2.0

On January 20, 2025, Republican President-elect Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th President of the United States in Washington. The initial steps by the president, along with a number of accusations and demands directed at Taiwan, have led some analysts to suggest that, driven by his transactional approach to world affairs, Donald Trump may seek to use the island as a "bargaining chip" in negotiations between the U.S. and China – or perhaps even withdraw U.S. support for Taiwan altogether. However, based on the analysis of U.S. policy toward Taiwan during Trump's first administration (2017-2021), recent statements by the president and key members of his current team on the Taiwan issue, as well as steps already taken by the U.S. government, the author argues that the American political elites continue to view the island as an important strategic asset in efforts to contain Beijing, and that the broader U.S. strategy of keeping Taiwan within the U.S. sphere of influence will remain unchanged. The Republican administration will actively advance its initiatives to strengthen U.S.-Taiwan relations, particularly in the military and security spheres. In the coming years, Taiwan's alignment with Washington is not anticipated to diminish, but rather to deepen. In this context, provocative rhetoric and actions by the Taiwanese administration, aimed at leveraging anti-China sentiment on the island to bolster support for the Democratic Progressive Party in the run-up to the 2028 presidential election, are likely to cast an additional "shadow" over China-U.S. relations. This will lead to growing uncertainty and increased risks in the development of the situation in the Taiwan Strait.

Taiwan, the U.S., Taiwan issue, Trump administration, China-U.S. relations