Forecasting Russia's foreign economic development under sanctions pressure

the purpose of the study is to develop an approach to forecasting Russia's foreign economic development in the context of ongoing sanctions pressure from Western countries. The key factors influencing the dynamics of exports, imports and the development of the country's economic model are analyzed. Methods: statistical methods for analyzing Russia's foreign trade turnover are used as methods in the presented study. Results: the study has developed a model that allows forecasting the development of Russia's foreign trade activities while maintaining critical geopolitical conditions. The results of the correlation and regression analysis showed that Russia's foreign trade activity with the European Union is largely influenced by oil prices and the redistribution of trade flows towards China. Conclusions: the structure of Russia's foreign trade until 2030 will be determined by the price situation of commodity markets, the further reorientation of flows towards China and Asian countries, as well as institutional and sanctions restrictions from the European Union. The key drivers of changes will continue to be China's share of trade and the dynamics of global oil prices, and the restoration of previous trade volumes with the EU is unlikely under current development scenarios.

export, import, foreign trade turnover, EU, China, sanctions, model, trade, economic sectors, oil price