An Interregional Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

Cover Page

Cite item

Abstract

This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the Russian economy, disaggregated into two regions: the Central Federal District (CFD) and the rest of Russia. We motivate the study by highlighting its relevance and significance, and provide a review of existing literature in the field. The model incorporates key economic agents to ensure comprehensiveness and realism, including households (whose behavior is described using the Euler equation), firms producing goods via a Cobb-Douglas production function, investment producers, the government, and the Central Bank. The analysis focuses on the contributions of various factors to the dynamics of the output gap and inflation. Particular attention is paid to the specific characteristics of the CFD, allowing for a more accurate representation of regional disparities and their impact on aggregate economic dynamics. The paper details the model construction, presents the results of our analysis, and concludes with implications for economic policy and forecasting.

About the authors

I. D. Korshunov

Central Federal District Department of the Bank of Russia

Email: IDKorshunov@mail.ru
Chief Economist of the Modeling Sector Moscow

References

  1. Zhemkov M. I. Regional Effects of Inflation Targeting in Russia: Factors of Heterogeneity and Structural Levels of Inflation. Economic Issues, 2019, no. 9, pp. 70-89. (In Russ.).
  2. Kreptsev D., Seleznev S. A DSGE Model of the Russian Economy with a Banking Sector. Series of Reports on Economic Research, 2017, no. 27, 82 p. (In Russ.).
  3. Kreptsev D., Seleznev S. DSGE Models of the Russian Economy with a Small Number of Equations. Series of Reports on Economic Research, Bank of Russia, 2016, no. 12, 53 p. (In Russ.).
  4. Nelyubina A. Forecasting Regional Indicators Based on a Quarterly Forecasting Model. Money and Credit, 2021, no. 2, pp. 50-75. (In Russ.).
  5. Novak A., Shulgin A. Monetary Policy in an Economy with Regional Heterogeneity: Approaches Based on Aggregated and Regional Information. Series of Reports on Economic Research. Bank of Russia, March 2020. 105 p. (In Russ.).
  6. Perevyshin Yu. N., Sinelnikov-Murylev S. G., Trunin P. V. Factors of Price Differentiation in Russian Regions. HSE Economic Journal, 2017, vol. 21, no. 3, pp. 361-384. (In Russ.).
  7. Sinelnikov-Murylev S. G., Perevyshin Yu. N., Trunin P. V. Differences in Consumer Price Growth Rates Across Russian Regions: An Empirical Analysis. Economy of Region, 2020, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 479-493. (In Russ.).
  8. Albonico A. The Global Multi-Country Model (GM): An Estimated DSGE Model for the Euro Area Countries. JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance, 2017/10. doi: 10.2760/901714.
  9. Beck G., Hubrich K., Marcellino M. Regional Inflation Dynamics Within and Across Euro Area Countries and a Comparison with the United States. Economic Policy, 2009, vol. 24, no. 57, pp. 142-184.
  10. De Haan J. Inflation Differentials in the Euro Area: A Survey. The European Central Bank at Ten, 2010, pp. 11-32.
  11. Del Negro M. [et al.]. The FRBNY DSGE Model. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, 2013, no. 647, 54 p.
  12. Deryugina E., Karlova N., Ponomarenko A. The Role of Regional and Sectoral Factors in Russian Inflation Developments. Economic Change and Restructuring, 2019, vol. 52, no. 4, pp. 453-474.
  13. Medina J. P., Soto C. Copper Price, Fiscal Policy and Business Cycle in Chile. Central Bank of Chile Working Papers, 2007, no. 458. 46 p.
  14. Rotemberg J. J. Sticky Prices in the United States. Journal of Political Economy, 1982, vol. 90, no. 6, pp. 1187-1211.

Supplementary files

Supplementary Files
Action
1. JATS XML


Согласие на обработку персональных данных

 

Используя сайт https://journals.rcsi.science, я (далее – «Пользователь» или «Субъект персональных данных») даю согласие на обработку персональных данных на этом сайте (текст Согласия) и на обработку персональных данных с помощью сервиса «Яндекс.Метрика» (текст Согласия).