On the issue of adaptive landscape development of useless lands based on the results of barley yield forecasting

The research aimed to assess the suitability of useless lands of a particular farm for growing barley in pure and cover crops based on the analysis of data from long-term monitoring of its yield at an agro-ecological test site. The work used data from long-term (1997-2012) monitoring of the yield of barley variety Gonor in pure and cover (allowing for additional production) crops at the Gubino agricultural site of All- Russian Research Institute of Reclaimed Lands. The agricultural site is located 4 km east of the city of Tver, on a hill with a relative height of 15 m, consisting of a flat top, a northern gentle slope with a steepness of 2-3о, a southern slope (3-5 о) and interhill depressions (northern and southern). Using statistical and mathematical modelling, patterns of barley yield formation were identified. Based on the obtained formulas and archival data on the state of useless lands, forecast crop yield surfaces were calculated for the entire territory of the farm. Barley in pure crops responds only to the height of the location, while in cover crops its yield depends on the height and steepness of the surface, as well as the phosphorus content of the soil. A quarter of the farm's area (the upper parts of the hills in the west and south) is potentially capable of providing barley yields in pure crops from 1.4 to 3.3 t/ha, and an increased yield of this crop in cover crops (1.1-3.4 t/ha) can be obtained only on 20 % of the territory occupying the transition zones between moraine and valley landscapes. Using only archival data is not always justified - different approaches to the design of farming systems must complement each other, and to clarify the yield forecast, it is necessary to conduct special landscape and soil studies.

clean crops, cover crops, mathematical and statistical modelling, useless lands