The geopolitical and economic consequences of the trade war between China and the United States: the transformation of the international system and the redistribution of global power

This article is dedicated to a comprehensive analysis of the trade war between China and the United States, which by 2025 has reached a stage of strategic confrontation, encompassing not only the economy but also the realm of technology, currency policy, and global governance. The author examines the origins of the conflict, the evolution of tariff policies, the geopolitical and institutional consequences of the standoff, and its impact on the fragmentation of the global economy. Special attention is paid to the transformation of the international system under the influence of increased competition for technological sovereignty, the rise of protectionism, changes in the structure of global supply chains, and the growing influence of non-Western institutions, including BRICS+, the New Development Bank, and CIPS. The analysis also covers the responses of other countries and regions, demonstrating the decentralization of global economic governance and the strengthening of regional alliances. The work employs a comprehensive interdisciplinary approach that combines the analysis of trade and economic statistics, legislative acts, international agreements, and geopolitical dynamics, relying on comparative political economy and elements of systemic analysis. The scientific novelty of the article lies in the conceptualization of the trade war between the US and China as a tool for the strategic redistribution of global power rather than as an isolated economic conflict. The author demonstrates that the escalation of the standoff between the US and China initiated the breakdown of the previous model of globalization and stimulated the formation of a bipolar world system. For the first time, the interconnection between internal economic problems in the US and their foreign economic policy aimed at containing China is emphasized. The conclusions indicate a persistent trend towards regionalization, the growing influence of developing countries, the institutional paralysis of the WTO, and the formation of parallel mechanisms for global governance. The author emphasizes that resolving the conflict requires a transition to a co-evolution model that combines competition and cooperation; otherwise, the world will face increasing fragmentation and instability.

trade war, China, USA, geo-economics, supply chains, technological sovereignty, protectionism, multipolarity, global governance, international institutions