Prospects for economic cooperation between China and Afghanistan after the withdrawal of US Troops

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Abstract

The article presents a comprehensive analysis of the transformation and prospects of economic cooperation between China and Afghanistan in the context of the U.S. troop withdrawal in 2021. The study focuses on three key clusters: (1) transport and logistics projects, concerning the development of railway and road corridors, including the China–Afghanistan line and the expansion of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC); (2) infrastructure initiatives, encompassing the construction of energy facilities (TAPI, CASA-1000, 500 kV power lines), fiber-optic networks, and the Digital Silk Road; (3) mining agreements, involving negotiations and contracts for the development of copper (Mes Aynak), lithium, and oil deposits (Amu Darya basin). The aim of this paper is to comprehensively assess the feasibility of economic cooperation initiatives between the two countries in both bilateral and multilateral formats. The theoretical and methodological foundation of the study is grounded in international relations theories, in particular liberalism. This theory is used to explain how economic initiatives and models of bilateral and multilateral cooperation can contribute to peace and stability in the region. The study reveals that following the U.S. withdrawal, China intensified its diplomatic and economic engagement, provided humanitarian assistance, supported the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative and the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor, and resumed agreements on the development of copper, lithium, and oil deposits. Bilateral trade volumes have increased, while new transportation routes have contributed to reducing logistical costs. The primary obstacles identified are political instability, security threats (particularly ISIS-K terrorist attacks), as well as deficits in infrastructure and qualified personnel. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the systematization and in-depth analysis of state policies, economic indicators, and cooperation mechanisms between China and Afghanistan to clarify the prospects for their economic interaction. New political developments in Afghanistan following the U.S. troop withdrawal in 2021 create an urgent need for comprehensive research assessing the practical feasibility of bilateral economic cooperation. The findings of this study can be utilized to inform the strategies of international organizations and investors, and to develop mechanisms for monitoring and evaluating investment projects.

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