Prospects for Economic Integration and Development of BRICS Countries in the Modern Global Economy

The author examines in detail such aspects of the topic as the historical stages of the formation of BRICS and their influence on the structure of the union, the dynamics of the nominal GDP of the member countries and the distribution of economic resources, as well as the specifics of the demographic situation in the states of the bloc. Significant attention is paid to the analysis of the opportunities and risks of economic integration, the prospects for the creation of a free trade zone and a common currency to strengthen sovereignty. Financial modeling is applied for long-term forecasting of aggregate and per capita GDP until 2075, taking into account the cyclicality of crises and demographic changes. The internal contradictions and synergy factors among BRICS countries forming the strategic potential of the alliance are studied, as well as the impact of resource availability and current macroeconomic trends on the sustainability of the bloc's development. The research methodology employs methods of systems analysis, comparative statistics, and financial modeling to assess the long-term dynamics of GDP and demographic changes in BRICS countries based on relevant macroeconomic data from the World Bank and historical trends. The novelty of the research lies in the development of a comprehensive model for forecasting economic growth and the level of prosperity of BRICS countries until 2075, considering macroeconomic, demographic, and resource factors. Unlike previous works, the study focuses not only on the theoretical aspects of integration but also on the quantitative modeling of the influence of crisis cycles, internal contradictions, and potential synergy among the bloc's participants. Reasonable scenarios for creating a free trade zone and a supranational currency system as mechanisms for strengthening economic sovereignty are presented. The research findings confirm that, with the preservation of positive development dynamics and enhanced policy coordination, BRICS countries will be able to achieve per capita GDP comparable to the level of developed medium-sized European states. Furthermore, the author emphasizes the importance of institutional trust, risk management, and strategic partnership as prerequisites for successful integration. The results obtained may serve as a practical basis for decision-making in the realm of long-term macroeconomic policy and international cooperation.

BRICS, GDP, world economy, economic integration, tariffs, economic growth, demography, financial modeling, free trade area, common currency