Natural Resources, Ethnopolitical Conflicts and Risk Factors for Sustainable Development in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

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Abstract

The issue of natural resources as a driver of political destabilization in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is a critical focus of scholarly analysis. However, the complex interplay of resources with weak institutions, demographic pressures, ethnic fragmentation, and external intervention requires deeper systematic examination. Studying these mechanisms, determining their specific causal pathways and combined destabilizing effects, is paramount for political science and development studies, as it allows for assessing for multifaceted challenges to sustainable peace and governance in resource-rich, fragile states. A systemic interdisciplinary approach, combining political science, demographic, economic and ecological analysis, was employed to understand the destabilizing dynamics. Case study and content analysis of specific conflicts (Bateke Plateau, Eastern Kivu) enabled the identification of causal links and the role of resource control. It has been found that resources catalyze ethnopolitical conflicts through four interconnected mechanisms: the institutional, the socio-demographic, the ethnic, and the external. Environmental degradation and climate change impacts further exacerbate these dynamics by intensifying competition over land, water, and livelihoods, provoking displacement and new conflict lines. Unlike simplistic notions of the “resource curse”, this study demonstrates that sustainable development in the DRC is contingent upon fundamentally strengthening state and political institutions to manage resources, mitigate interconnected socio-economic and environmental threats, and counter fragmentation, as the primary prerequisite for stability.

About the authors

Andrey V. Korotayev

HSE University; Lomonosov Moscow State University

Author for correspondence.
Email: akorotayev@gmail.com
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3014-2037

DrSc (History), PhD (Middle Eastern Studies), Director of the Centre for Stability and Risk Analysis, HSE University; Professor of the Department of Globalistics, Faculty of Global Studies, Lomonosov Moscow State University

Moscow, Russian Federation

Ivan Yu. Chernomorchenko

HSE University

Email: chekoioan@gmail.com
ORCID iD: 0009-0006-1860-1279

Research Intern of the Centre for Stability and Risk Analysis

Moscow, Russian Federation

Alexander S. Yakubchuk

Lomonosov Moscow State University

Email: slaurum@aol.com
ORCID iD: 0009-0009-7108-847X

DrSc (Geological and Mineralogical Sciences), Associate Professor of the Department of Geology and Geochemistry of Ore Deposits, Faculty of Geology

Moscow, Russian Federation

Stepan S. Sergeev

Lomonosov Moscow State University

Email: sergeevss@spa.msu.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7872-0193

Assistant of the Department of Innovation Development Economics, Faculty of Public Administration

Moscow, Russian Federation

Andrey V. Glushchenko

Joint Stock Company “Rosoboronexport”

Email: gllev@yandex.ru
ORCID iD: 0009-0005-9032-538X

Head of the 5th Administration of Marketing Administration of Rosoboronexport; PhD Student of the Institute of Asian and African Studies, Lomonosov Moscow State University

Moscow, Russian Federation

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