Dynamics of the Electoral Processes in Mozambique in 2014-2024: At the Junction of Global Influences and Local Specifics

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Abstract

One of the key problems in many sub-Saharan African countries in the 21st century is the irremovability of ruling parties while formally recognizing the freedom of choice of the population. The purpose of this study is to characterize the main transformations of electoral preferences of citizens of the Republic of Mozambique, taking into account the key factors influencing the spatial distribution of votes in 2014-2024. The scientific novelty of the work lies in the fact that changes in the socio-political situation in Mozambique are considered in connection with the results of electoral cycles, expressed in the number of votes in each of the 11 provinces of the country. It was established that after the last three cycles of the presidential elections in 2014, 2019 and 2024, the electoral monochromacy in the state has significantly increased: the disproportions in the spatial and territorial distribution of the electorate’s votes are significantly leveled. The main scenario for the development of the socio-political situation in Mozambique was determined at the end of the current electoral cycle in 2024. It presupposes further territorial consolidation under the rule of FRELIMO, the weakening of the historically most active opposition in the person of the RENAMO national democrats due to a conflict in the leadership of the organization and the transition of PODEMOS activists to the number of moderate parliamentary oppositionists.

About the authors

Anton I. Kupalov-Yaropolk

The Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Author for correspondence.
Email: kazachok.anton@gmail.com
ORCID iD: 0009-0006-3771-1780

Junior Research Fellow of the Center for History and Cultural Anthropology

Moscow, Russian Federation

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